yes I just replied on the cnbc thread that Fabers coverage was wrong. The expectations were for weakness in keyword pricing this month.
These fathom keyword prices and their relation to goog revenues is a tough call. Fathom keywords declined significantly in Jan and Feb of this year, down double digits. Then a snapback of 12% or so in March if I remember correctly. Since we had the jan/feb decline the march snapback was off a lower base, since these are cumulative numbers. Then we got the blowout march goog numbers.
For this quarter, we started off at a higher base on march 31, and got another double digit increase for April keywords, then a decline in may and probably another in june. Just on this keyword metric alone we are in better shape than last quarter at this point.
My personal opinion is that these keyword pricing ratios are losing some validity, because there is an infinite number of keywords, it isn't like TV where you have a finite amt of supply. As keywords for things like "Ford Explorer" get bid up to over $15, the small advertisers start bidding on "Ford Bronco" or "Ford Bronco2" or what have you. We aren't going to see keyword price increases like we have seen for much longer. But what we will see is a flattening of the customer base and more and more keywords used.
If you type in Lexus right now, and look at who is bidding on that keyword, it is a bunch of little companies, no competing car manufacturers at all! The Lexus keyword should have every single alternative luxury vehicle on the right side. That is where we are with these keywords, still climbing up the food chain.
Google also has a .05 minimum that some analysts think can be doubled which will generate a large top line increase. |
