FA on ARIA:
1. Lead product candidate AP23573 in Phase II trials for various difficult-to-treat cancers. Drug is on FDA fast track status.
2. Partnership with a leading stent manufacturer announced several months ago. Stents to be coated with AP23573. Potential for $39M in milestone payments.
3. Lawsuit against LLY expecting key decisions by end of year. A complete win is not necessary. 48 other companies also in violation of (very broad) NFkB patents. Licensing fees could be substantial, but I expect many appeals by many companies if ARIA wins on very many key points.
4. Company has available funds to take them into Q4 2006. Expect some sort of financing prior to that, possibly from an existing 9M share shelf. Milestone payments from the stent partnership, funds from a possible European partnership, or other partnership arrangements could provide additional capital to go beyond Q4-06, but nobody wants to give money to someone who needs it desperately, so funds must arrive well before Q4-06.
5. Fast track status was based on early P-II data, so we have lots of trials and risk ahead of us.
6. Company has been accused of hyping products/partnerships, etc., and this accusation has merit. Only within the last 6-12 months has the company begun delivering on its promises.
7. Short interest has been rising, and no sponsorship has appeared to frighten the shorts away. If the company has the huge potential that I see, then why don't any big players see it too? AP23573 could be an hallucinogen rather than a cancer treatment. |
