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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices
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To: neolib who wrote (235739)6/9/2005 7:12:33 PM
From: TimF  Read Replies (1) of 1576658
 
The safe haven need not be a substantial piece of geography.

It doesn't have to be very big, but it has to exist in more than someone's hearts and minds. It has to have a real existence to operate like the safe havens I was talking about and effectively eliminate the chance to defeat any decent size and very determined guerilla force.

As for "occupation" I'm glad you put it in quotes, because while we initially did have a fairly clear "occupation" of Iraq, that really isn't the current situation. In the end the insurgency has to be defeated by the Iraqi government. If enough of the Iraqis support the insurgency to a great enough extent that it will win, but than it will not be because of some safe haven, but simply because the side opposing the insurgency will be too weak.

In Vietnam the South eventually started to develop the ability to deal with local insurgents, but it never developed the ability to defeat a conventional invasion from the North without US assistance. It could do so without the US playing much of a role on the ground, see the Eastertide Offensive, but our air power and re-supply helped turn the tide, without them the South fell to the next big invasion.

Perhaps the Iraq government will prove weaker and less effective than the South Vietnamese government did, and won't be able to contain the insurgents even with US assistance, and without a serious threat of a massive convention invasion from any neighbor. If so all that will show is that a weak unpopular government can fall. It doesn't say much about counter guerilla or anti-insurgency warfare in general.

Tim
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