Russ:
There was a large 2,000 MT copper draw down in LME last night, we are at 38,625 MT there, and only 17,344 at Comex.
Supplies are getting critically tight. In this respect, I wonder if you can explain something to me? The Open Interest in the Comex June contract is close to 3,500 contracts, or about 40,000 tons.
I presume almost all these contracts -- long and short -- are held by commercials. So, when June settles, 40,000 tons get delivered by producers/suppliers (the Shorts), and at the same time, consumers/manufacturers (the Longs) take delivery of 40,000 tons.
But what if a lot of the shorts are not suppliers and don't have the stuff to deliver? Is this possible -- i.e. Can speculators still be short the market so close to June settlement date? With only 17,000 tons in Comex stocks, this would lead to a massive short squeeze.
Am I understanding this correctly -- and do you know if it's possible to see a COT-type breakdown for just the June contract?
TIA. Best regards,
Howy |
