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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated

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To: cnyndwllr who wrote (119363)6/10/2005 10:57:32 PM
From: Nadine Carroll  Read Replies (1) of 793905
 
How about noticing that the unit in question was a problem precisely because it was a Sunni unit picked from the worst Sunni areas, and is the most vulnerable to infiltration and dual loyalties. The US & the Iraqi government is responding to this by sending in Shia and Kurdish units, with the clear message to Al Anbar that they can make a deal or some of the Shia militias will knock heads together in the future. The Strategy Page entry below describes the process. Which seems to be working, but slowly.

Also, building any Iraqi units will depend on building a professional officer corps, and that is a long process, especially as it cuts clear against the grain of Arab culture, where those higher in the hierarchy typically treat the lower-downs terribly, which is one reason Arabs stink so badly at modern war. This is a long process and if the DoD thinks there are shortcuts, they are wrong. However, it is also clear that there are already many good Iraqi units and that the story of this one unit is not the story of every unit.

In short, I would remember the context, and not expect to get it from Tony Shadid, whose rather myopic and one-sided reports I read all the way through the intifada. All I would say of him is that at least I don't think he makes stuff up or is a patsy for any sob story staged for his benefit, which is more than you can say of most reporters.
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June 9, 2005: More towns in Iraqi's "wild west" are making peace with the government. The usual drill is not another Fallujah, but a government official meeting with local tribal and religious leaders, where an offer is made. It is announced that Iraqi and American troops are coming. Neighborhoods that support the government will see little or no fighting as a search is made for weapons, bombs and the like. Neighborhoods that wish to resist will be hit hard. By now, everyone knows how smart bombs work. Increasingly, Sunni Arab leaders are being told, by their followers, that all this violence is not worth it. After Saddam fell, Sunni Arabs continued to believe in fantasies. For the last two years, the collective delusion was that the Americans had no stomach for guerilla war, and the Kurds and Shia Arabs could never get a government together. Today, Sunni Arabs who can get away on a little vacation, go north to the Kurdish north, or south to Shia Basra. In both places you can sit in an outdoor cafe without fear of a suicide bomb going off down the street. The Kurds and Shia have more jobs, more reconstruction and less crime. The Sunni Arabs don't want to live in their own mess any more. They don't want to live in a combat zone, especially while the Kurds and Shia are not.

For Sunni Arabs to support the government, it often means fighting with the terrorist groups, and sometimes the criminal gangs they are allied with. The government offer includes help in building up local security. It has not gone unnoticed that Iraqi police are a lot more effective than they were a year ago. The government also has police commandoes who can go into any area, no matter how well defended, and take out terrorists or other heavily armed enemies. No longer does the government have to depend on the Americans for this sort of thing.

The bad news is that over a million Sunni Arabs are still hostile to the government, and any foreign troops in Iraq. Many are propelled by religious beliefs, as well as the "we are superior and should be running the place" attitude that Sunni Arabs have been cultivating for centuries. These guys are willing to keep fighting. The government doesn't want a blood bath, and they know that millions of Shia Arabs and Kurds would be willing to carry out a general massacre of Sunni Arabs, as payback for past sins. So the government goes to each town and neighborhood, gets the local leaders together, and makes the offer. Those who refuse are free to go home and get their guns and followers together for their last stand. Some of the leaders who refuse the government offer, do so because they know most of their followers want to fight on. But more and more, Sunni Arabs are deciding that there's no future in all this violence. You fight the Americans, you die. And, increasingly, the odds aren't much better against government troops or police.

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