Hi Sue,
I guess the IPO was in February 2004, since there's no chart data before that? Anyhow, SMBI broke out of a trading range last year and has been in a reasonably orderly uptrend ever since:
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[de][pb50!b200][vc60][iLk14!Lp14,3,3]&pref=G
During this time, the 70 sma has been a good support level, and on Thursday SMBI formed a hammer reversal candle right at that level:
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[dc][pb70!d20,2][vc60][iLk14!Lp14,3,3]&pref=G
At that time, SMBI was comparatively (but not extremely) oversold as you can see:
139.142.147.218
Note here the steadily increasing OBV and RS (compared to the benchmark index). Note also that the stochastics spent the majority of the time above 50, and rarely go down to extreme oversold levels. IMHO, this is exactly what you like to see in a long position. Taking a long position in a stock that is not only currently strong, but that has been steadily increasing in strength lowers your overall risk IMHO because the volatility is increasingly asymmetric (i.e., biased to the upside). That has the effect of increasing potential reward while simultaneously decreasing downside risk.
There are no buy signals quite yet, except early unconfirmed buy signals in Williams and OBV. But buy signals appear imminent to me.
I think most likely you timed this trade perfectly, and SMBI will proceed upwards from here very nicely.
T |
