The Residential Real Estate Crash Index Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index

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To: John Vosilla who wrote (33137)	6/11/2005 12:54:11 PM
From: X Y Zebra	Read Replies (2) of 306849

Keep in mind RE did nothing from 1930-1955 across the board. Thank you !! it was until the baby boomers begun to acquire houses and other events (oil embargo in the 70's) that things begun to perk up... (read demographics) and i am not saying that certain markets are NOT under the bubble effect.... but to compare a market (real estate) to a nasdaq (or stock market) is idiotic, there are many variables at the local level that are VERY different from the nasdaq or any equities market... follow the baby boomers and immigration (all related to demographics) and you can see more or less what the condition of the market will be... there are about 79 million baby boomers getting ready to retire... AND opposed to the previous generation of retirees... the boomers are very wealthy in comparison... so... my point is... find out what these retirees want and where will they be going to and such market will be benefited extraordinarily... as to the people who are paying insane prices for whatever real estate.... well sure, they will be hurt ... but that doe s not mean that THE ENTIRE REAL ESTATE MARKET IS READY TO IMPLODE that has been my point... you cannot compare the VARIOUS (by segment and/or location) real estate markets to a 'centralized' equities market where the dot-bombs were the main influence and origin of the destruction of value came from in addition... even if you look at such destruction of value... the USA is still here, this society is still here (albeit getting crazier and crazier) and business continues... the real estate market(S) will continue and the implosion of one will not mean the domino effect the doomsayers are predicting.... I don't see how values today in bubble markets can be supported without at least doubling wages and rents the next few year, continuation of lax underwriting with low start rate ARM's and interest rates remaining near these record low levels. Just the increases in RE taxes and insurance from 2003-06 will need a 50% increase in rents to be covered... exactly... so instead of the destruction of value in real estate.... the destruction will be in YOUR ALL MIGHTY CURRENCY... i.e. inflation (masked by how the government wants to measure it) will be the murderer of the US Dollar.... a moment of poetic justice here... -LOL!!! IN CONCEPT THE GOLD BUGS WERE RIGHT ALL ALONG -gg i.e. the fiat currency (the us dollar and any other currency for that matter, where the politicians have been able to milk forever) is getting destroyed.... the problem has been that amazingly most people are actually NOT THAT DUMB... because they learned that the gold market could be manipulated and therefore they stayed away from it... INSTEAD we, the people.... have chosen real estate to be our new REAL currency by which things are measured... and no doubt the politicians will soon learn that property taxes will be the way to MILK the public... the USA society and its infrastructure makes all this possible.... which in a way it will protect it as foreigners will continue to come to this market and invest attempting to protect themselves against the ravaging of their savings by their respective governments The good news is my prediction is real estate values in most bubble markets will be higher by 2030. Junk lots in remote areas of Florida will still be way below today's prices by then<g>. correct... and that's looking at the crappy stuff... in the west... there are beautiful tracks of land... and great small town... still unspoiled by the idiocy of the masses where value WILL keep marching up, regardless if some moron paid 19'000,000.00 for a condominium in some west or east coast city...

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