Piper: CVTX :Updating Model for 1Q Results
April 27, 2005
CVTX - $19.89
Outperform Volatility: Medium
Updating Model for 1Q Results
Thomas Wei, Senior Research Analyst Reason for Report:
212 284-9305, thomas.a.wei@pjc.com
Rachel L. McMinn, Ph.D., Research
Analyst
415 277-1549, rachel.l.mcminn@pjc.com
Gur A. Roshwalb, M.D., Research
Analyst
212-284-9314, gur.a.roshwalb@pjc.com
KEY POINTS:
* Revising Price Target Methodology--No Changes To Target Price. We are
lowering the discount rate from 35% to 30% to reflect lower risk in
achieving Ranexa commercialization, based on the recently announced
positive ERICA data. Our price target remains $34, however, due to higher
operating expense assumptions
Rating -- Outperform
Price: $19.89
52 Week High: $24.70
52 Week Low: $11.28
Price Tgt -- $34.00
Price Target: $34.00
Shares Out (mil): 35.5
Market Cap. (mil): $706.1
Avg Daily Vol (000): 1,046
Book Value/Share: $1.67
Cash Per Share: $10.98
Debt to Total Capital: 557%
Div (ann): $0.00
Est LT EPS Growth: NM
P/E to LT EPS Growth (FY06): NA
Est Next Rep Date: 08/01/2005
Fiscal Year End: Dec
INVESTMENT RECOMMENDATION:
We believe that CVTX could be a breakthrough story in 2005 and remains one of
our top small-cap picks.
RISKS TO ACHIEVEMENT OF TARGET PRICE:
Risks include but are not limited to: 1) negative outcome of Ranexa or
regadenoson studies, 2) uncertainty on the commercial opportunity of Ranexa,
3) inability to expand Aceon mangaed care coverage, and 4) delay in sNDA
approval for Aceon. |
