I don't know whether I believe some of the statistics claimed by this article but some more "not-so-good" news for AVTC:
( BW)(COMPUTER-INTELLIGENCE) Octel and Lucent Merger: "A Marriage
Made in Heaven," says CI
Business/Technology Editors
LA JOLLA, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Sept. 8, 1997--
Customers Show Minimal Overlap; Combined Company
Is Strong in All Segments
If opposites attract, then Lucent Technologies' $1.8 billion
acquisition of Octel Communications is a marriage made in heaven,
according to research by Computer Intelligence, the leading fact-based
source for market research in the computer and communications
industries. CI's data shows that the two companies' customers are not
likely to be found at the same party: customer bases for the two
firms' voice messaging products differ widely by size of company and
by type of technology environment. Lucent owns a majority of the
low-technology sites; Octel is strongest in high-technology
environments.
For the purposes of differentiating market segments, Computer
Intelligence has defined a high-technology environment as one in which
there is a local area network or a computer system larger than a
personal computer, and a low-technology environment as one where there
are only stand-alone personal computers.
CI's research demonstrates Lucent Technologies' significant
market strength in the low-end, low-technology voice messaging market
segments (see tables following). In fact, Lucent owns 55 percent of
all the low-technology oriented voice messaging customers with fewer
than ten enterprise employees, which is a significant segment. Of the
205,504 U.S. payrolled sites that can be classified as low technology,
93,509 have fewer than ten employees.
The 67,483 U.S. payrolled sites that make use of complex
technology are also a very attractive target for voice messaging
companies, because they are willing to buy high-ticket items with
greater profit margins. It is in this arena that Octel Communications
becomes a major player. Its high-technology customers constitute 12
percent of this market. The Lucent/Octel combined company now owns
almost a third (31 percent) of voice messaging sites utilizing
high-technology and almost half (47 percent) of all low technology
voice messaging sites.
*T
Voice Messaging Market Shares By Level of Customer Technology
Lucent Technologies vs. Octel Communications
# Enterprise Employees % Share/High Tech Sites % Share/Low Tech Sites
Lucent Octel Lucent Octel
1-9 -- -- 55% 2%
10-99 16% 9% 35% 4%
100-499 25% 12% 25% 7%
500-999 23% 17% 21% 7%
1000-1999 21% 23% 24% 21%
2000+ 21% 27% 29% 24%
Overall 20% 11% 44% 3%
Source: Computer Intelligence, 1997
Combined Lucent/Octel
# Enterprise Employees % Share/High Tech Sites % Share/Low Tech Sites
1-9 -- 58%
10-99 25% 38%
100-499 37% 31%
500-999 41% 28%
1000-1999 43% 45%
2000+ 48% 53%
Overall 31% 47%
Source: Computer Intelligence, 1997
*T
Lucent Technology's acquisition of Octel Communications creates a
company that is now very strong where Lucent alone had been
comparatively weak. Previously, Lucent by itself held only a quarter
or less market share of high technology oriented sites with 100 or
more enterprise employees. The market share of the combined company
now ranges from a low of 37 percent in the 100-499 employee market
segment to a high of 48 percent of all sites with 2,000 or more
enterprise employees where high technology is found.
"With strength across the entire spectrum of small and large
companies with low technology or high technology environments, Lucent
Technology is now a voice messaging team with no perceived
weaknesses," said Stan Schatt, Computer Intelligence's Director of
Research.
Computer Intelligence, a division of Ziff-Davis Inc., is the
leading source of fact-based information for the computer and
communications industries. CI's extensive research capabilities
provide a wide variety of products and services that help computer and
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company's products and services are based on proprietary information
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