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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices
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To: combjelly who wrote (236821)6/15/2005 7:01:00 PM
From: TimF   of 1586105
 
"I think the odds of the nuke getting through are much higher than 1 in 50."

Based on what? Assuming that the US is still cooperating with international agencies, acquiring a nuke from, say NK or Russia and shipping it to the US and placing it is going to make all kinds of ripples in the international scene. The organization required is far more than even Al Quaida is capable of.

My statement was based on the assumption that Al Quaida or someone like them or inspired by them has the nuke already. I was talking about the dificulty involved in transportation which really isn't all that great. Not a peice of cake, but not incredibly daunting either.

Getting the nuke would be much harder.

The idea of NK doing it is a total non-starter.

I mostly agree. I might not call it a "total non-starter", but it isn't very far away from being one. My analysis was based on the assumption that someone with the nuke wanted to make the attack. In that case it would be a huge danger. If you don't assume that and consider the relative lack of motivation of those who currently have nukes, and the lack of nukes in the hands of those who have the motivation, you get a result that a nuke attack on the US is not likely any time soon.

Of course considering how destructive such an attack can be even a very small risk is one that we should take reasonable measures to deal with.

Tim
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