Austral Pacific Energy (AEN) -- I've never been more positive about the company than I am right now, it is my second largest position.
Here are notes of a NZ "Meet the company" show the company did in NZ earlier today, from "Spirit", an NZ guy who is very knowledgeable about oil & gas. How about half a TCF of gas from Cardiff and a quarter billion bbls. of oil from Douglas, pretty please?
"Just back from the meeting with about 8 pages of notes. Unfortunately I'll be away again for the next few days so won't have a chance for an in depth report, though KK was there and may have some words to offer.
Nice bottle of Cheal A3X oil from production test 10 June 2005 given out [38 degree API, 36C Pour Point].
Cheal oil is very valuable, and with Cheal 5, 6 in forward programme, highly probable that Cheal [A3X, A4, 5, 6] will be delivering 1500 bopd by end of year and net to APX at $NZ10m pa. [Most likely reserves 3 mmbbl. The typical Mt Messenger reservoir in Taranaki has depletion rate of 1% per month.]
Latest frac on Cardiff has gone well and will be flowed over the coming weekend. These sands [McKee] are looking to have the best flow characteristics of the 3 zones and apparently no frac sand in bore to hinder the flow.
Generally speaking Dave Bennett was in fine form and approaching the ebullient. Unfortunately there was a curb on Dave to restrict the technical component [apparently to one slide only] and David Newman closed off the question session after only a limited time. Again, the mood of the meeting was that people were not prepared to listen to technical detail, rather wanting outcome reduced to dollar value to their pocket. In that regard Dave Bennett was quite positive that the share price still had a good way to run.
Various value scenario's were put on Cardiff. KK may have the numbers.
Little chance to cover or even mention many of the other interesting prospects that APX have in the pipeline - As I recall, Waitoriki [240 bcf] possibly early next year in JV with others, Onaero North to be later and maybe by APX alone.
Douglas [PNG] - 250 mmbbl as mid case. Greatest risk was seen as whether oil or gas. [The strong DHI are interpreted to mean that the hydrocarbons are there]. If gas, the PNG reservoirs tend to tolerate reinjection, so liquid stripping from a wet gas discovery might still be possible.
David Newman earlier made the point that there were no plans currently to raise capital. Conclusion - a new share issue is not about to happen, certainly not before finding out the results of the Cardiff testing.
Possible range [of Cardiff 2 production] is seen as 2mmscf/d - 20 mmscf/d.
Lower end is barely commercial, upper end is barnstorming country.
APX to receive about $NZ5/mcf.
Typical Kapuni wells flow 10 mmscf/d + 400 bopd [condensate] and have initial reserves of 100 bcf.
Mid range flow at Cardiff would have cash flow of $NZ60-70K per day. [25% net to APX]. That is 10 mmscf/d [50K] + condensate of about 1/3 the gas value.
Therefore upper end [20 mmscf/d] about twice that cash flow.
Best scenario at Cardiff would lead to about 7-8 wells. [750 bcf ??]
Forward planning is for Cardiff 3 and Cardiff 4 to be drilled from present platform Q2/3 next year.
Current planning for the pipeline connection to the main Kapuni line [and then onwards to the Kapuni processing plant] is for an 8" pipe sized to carry 50 mmscf/d.
Cardiff reserves - present indications are that the APX numbers for the midrange case are about 50% greater than the Sproule numbers as given for their mid range estimate." |
