***** "TIC" = Tic' Toc` for 350 HUI *****
James Sinclair has long correctly identified the coming "tipping point" for Gold & Goldstocks - the TIC.
When unregistered, unregulated "Carribean Hedge Funds" become the source of financing US Debt.... Tic' Toc.
From Jim Sinclair's Mineset:
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216.187.82.180
Wednesday, June 15, 2005, 5:07:00 PM EST
TIC - A Technical Review
Author: Dan Norcini
This presentation in chart form (see below) is the percentage increase or decrease in Treasury holdings of the big three Asian customers, Japan, China and S. Korea on a 12 month trailing basis, and a comparison of the Trade Balance vs. Net Capital Flows data.
As you can see, since the beginning of 2003, Net flows have proved to be sufficient to cover the trade deficit on a month-by-month basis with the exception of two brief periods. The first occurred in September and October of 2003, the second in August, September and October of 2004.
With the exception of 2004, there has not been an interval of more than two consecutive months in which international capital flows fell short of funding the deficit. Three months is the maximum period to this point since the dollar was in the doldrums. (I chose 2003 as a starting point since that was the first time the dollar broke beneath the psychologically important number of 100 on the U.S. Dollar Index).
This month’s figures, along with the revision to last month’s total on the flows, gives us two consecutive months in which net capital flows have been insufficient to cover the deficit in the trade balance of payments.
In light of this, I would suggest that the next two month’s figures will take on a critical importance as we wait to see whether a serious trend is beginning to develop in this regards.
If we get a rebound next month in the May release and net flows are sufficient to meet what will no doubt be yet another large trade deficit number, (as long as crude oil prices stay strong, look for little improvement in the negative balance of payments – additionally the stronger dollar is working perversely to further aggravate the situation), then we will have reverted to the norm.
If we fall short once again, the dollar is in serious trouble in my opinion especially if the month of June comes up insufficient as well. That will establish a new and especially worrisome trend that bodes ill for the greenback down the road.
Chart:
sitedynamo.com
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POG + $3 in the am....
The HUI "V" Bottom Rally Trade... continues to head in a beeline straight thru the 200 dma - which will once again become support and will result in a move of 40+ HUI Points in a "V" Bounce ~
Whodathunkit !?!?
...not the Gold Pundit/Analysts.
HUI 350...no Blue Sky - just TIC Real-ity ~
$` |
