EDIT BELOW: NE:OIH Chart.
No need to apologize. I am making an educated guess as is everyone else. Everyone uses their own technique. I have an anticipatory style that contradicts those of others, but as I post, I hope to share the rationale for doing what I do and learn from others in the process. A broken clock is right twice a day too and whether by chance or timing, there is a 50-50 chance each and every day, otherwise we'd all be retired.
Two recent examples of my very bullish positions are RIO and SID. I got chastised back and forth on those positions, but they worked out and I still own a bunch of it. No one will ring the bell and tell me the music stopped playing, but greed will revert everything back to the mean, IMO. To me, there is lots of bullishness, apathy, cockiness, and a very casual attitude in all energy boards I have seen recently. To me that is a HUGE warning sign.
I trade the puts, I am not making a prediction. The intraday volatility when it moves the other way will be enough. Right now I do not want to pay a 51 p/e for a oil service stock like NE. While they will have a good quarter, each successive quarter will show a smaller percentage increase. The 2nd derivative of that growth curve will slow down.
I don't feel that supply is an issue large enough to warrant this pricing. I think there is a lot of speculation, lots of it on the long side. I see lots insiders selling, such as yesterday on NE by the CFO. If things are so great, heck let it ride. OSX has consistently disappointed earnings-wise quarter after quarter, despite high prices. I see lots of debt issues and secondary offerings out there in the sector. They are selling when it is good. If the price was too low, they would not be selling.
Timing is key, but heck, I don't think this is a bad place to take a stab at if after such a large run on what news? Speculation, it goes both ways and it generally causes markets to fall faster than they rise. JMVHO. No Slider cool-aid here.
EDIT: NE/OIH
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