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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio candidates - Moderated

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To: Eric L who wrote (1521)6/17/2005 9:46:28 PM
From: tinkershaw  Read Replies (1) of 2955
 
<<<So the question - what would cause OVTI stock to get such a huge short position? Its fundamental story seems OK, and is least as good or bad as the other semi stocks which have 3% of their float short>>>

That is a mighty fine question. Wish I knew. I lost 30% experimenting with OVTI as it was the King (more than 2x the marketshare of its next competitor) in the midst of a Tornado. I bought it cheap, or at least what I thought was cheap, and it is now still $3.50 or so below where I bought it at (although I do think if I would have held I would have broke back even at one point).

What was cited was a product switch to higher res chips. That product transition must have taken place by now and yet the stock is still $3.50 or so below where I initially bought it at a place that I thought was cheap.

All I can think of is that the market is so competitive that there simply is no economic profits to be made and that it has essentially become a commodity market as the growth rate last I look continued to be phenomenol. It is not like the stock is not followed heavily or known about. Every tech writer in the world had it on its Christmas list in 2003 and 2004.

The short interest may just be from past experience in profitable shorting. Success tends to breed success, and the same breeds for shorts.

But dang if I know. OVTI is not alone in a very competitive semiconductor business with little to distinquish its product from a commodity other than under supply and staying one step ahead of the herd.

Tinker
Anyways, it was a failed experiment. What I learned from OVTI is that their product was too simple with too little to differentiate itself. I think the experiment would have worked for a more complex product like a PC was, or a more proprietary product like a NAS or SAN server but the product simply cannot be that simple and hope to have a wildly successful stock, at least not after everyone has caught on to it. Then it is too late.
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