USA politics: Election watch
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COUNTRY BRIEFING
FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT
June 20, 2005 Monday
The next congressional election in the US will be held in November 2006, when all seats in the House of Representatives and one-third of the seats in the Senate are up for election. The Republicans are likely to be in a relatively strong position to retain control of both houses, provided the economy holds up and the situation in Iraq has stabilised. A tax-cutting strategy is likely to be a vote winner, but the Bush administration must be careful to avoid accusations of fiscal irresponsibility, given the ballooning budget deficit and the weak dollar.
Social Security reform could be a crucial issue, although Mr Bush may have given up and moved on to other initiatives by then. Local issues will play a more important role than in the November 2004 election, and the Democrats will seek to focus the debate on jobs, healthcare and education.
Attention is already turning to the 2008 presidential election, and many names on both sides of the political divide are being floated as potential candidates. With no incumbent running, Republican favourites include the former mayor of New York, Rudolph Guiliani, the independently minded senator for Arizona, John McCain, the governor of Florida and Mr Bush's brother, Jeb Bush, and the senator for Nebraska, Chuck Hagel. Mr Bush's chief political adviser, Karl Rove, could also decide to offer his formidable campaigning skills, possibly to the Senate majority leader, Bill Frist.
For the Democrats, the senator for New York and former first lady, Hillary Rodham Clinton, is a strong contender. Mrs Clinton has plenty of credibility, the support of many in her party and excellent fundraising ability. While focusing on her November 2006 Senate re-election campaign, she will also increasingly present herself as a centrist politician who can appeal to socially conservative voters.
Other possible Democratic contenders include the former vice-presidential candidate, John Edwards, the former governor of Indiana and now one of its senators, Evan Bayh, and the governor of Virginia, Mark Warner, a former businessman who has built a reputation as a centrist politician. A fast- rising, youthful star in the Democratic firmament is the newly elected junior senator for Illinois, Barack Obama, although he is unlikely to run for the presidency in 2008.
SOURCE: Country Report
LOAD-DATE: June 20, 2005 |
