Befriend the Trend Trading Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Befriend the Trend Trading

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From: Dr. Stoxx	6/24/2005 9:58:44 AM
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Just received this from Highlight Investments via email; this group does volume analysis...take it as a FYI and be your own judge: Current Market Commentary Market Stage (6/23/2005): Update June 23, 2005: The key event of today's session was undoubtedly the very large output of supportive volume that occurred in the early afternoon (chart reference: a one-day view with a 15-minute VMA setting), which generated a large surplus of supportive volume for the session. This VMA spike to the downside registers prominently even on a 30-day chart with a 240-minute VMA, making it interesting enough to assess for its potential mid-term impact. In fact, this solid amount of new supportive volume has prompted us to review (and perhaps revise over the coming days) our current call for a mild mid-term downtrend. A comparison of the charts of the NASDAQ Composite, the NASDAQ 100, the DOW, and the S&P 500 shows that of these four major market gauges, only the NASDAQ 100 has established a true downtrend (a pattern of consistently lower lows and lower highs) since peaking in early June. Meanwhile, the NASDAQ Composite has shown a sideways consolidation pattern with a very slight downward bias, and the blue chips/ large caps gauges have shown very modest uptrends over the same time. Today's newly minted supportive volume now challenges our call for a mid-term downtrend; we believe this large VMA spike to the downside might act as a bullish catalyst in the near future, potentially allowing us to revise our mid-term outlook and consequently take a more bullish stance for this timeframe. Our outlook for the long-term remains unchanged: we continue to see a high probability that the indexes will pursue their long-term uptrend.

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