The Bush boys put out a contract
Peter A. Brown
Sentinel Columnist
June 24, 2005
You can almost hear George and Jeb talking about politically executing Katherine Harris as if they were characters in the Godfather movies putting out a contract on someone who stood in their way.
The Bush brothers are giving her the political kiss of death, just as the mobsters in the film trilogy often discussed the need to kill former allies because of changing alliances.
It's just business.
Harris must surely realize that, in the high-stakes game she has been playing, the president of the United States just called her bluff.
Self-confidence is one thing.
Stupidity is another.
Harris, a college history major, must know that no one in memory has won a statewide GOP primary in America against the wishes of national and state party leaders.
Harris, an ambitious two-term member of Congress, is in a tight spot. Her problem isn't with her political opponents but with her ideological soul mates.
She made her reputation as the secretary of state who certified George W. Bush's 2000 win in Florida despite his razor-thin margin and court cases challenging the result.
She became an icon to Republicans but the anti-Christ to Democrats. They saw her as part of a cabal that stole the presidency from Al Gore.
Yet she was easily elected to Congress in 2002 because Democrats are almost an endangered species in her Sarasota-area district.
In 2004, she bowed to presidential pressure not to run for Florida's open U.S. Senate seat so that White House-favored Mel Martinez could run and win.
The White House worried she not only would lose the seat, but that the almost pathological dislike she inspires in Democrats might hurt the president's chances of carrying Florida and winning re-election.
Word was that she had been assured that the big boys would stay out of her way in 2006 when Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson ran for re-election.
She declared her candidacy for the Nelson seat earlier this month, after meetings with Karl Rove, the White House's political honcho, who it now seems apparent, told her the White House was opposed to her candidacy this time, too.
The National Republican Senatorial Committee, which coordinates GOP Senate campaigns, had showed her private polls suggesting she can't beat Nelson and begged her not to run.
An Orlando Sentinel/WESH 2 News poll taken this month showed him beating her by 17 points. Successful challengers often start off way behind incumbents, but not those who have such widespread name identification as she.
Her announcement of candidacy made it seem as if she had assuaged the Bush boys' concerns, because taking on a president and governor of one's own party is not conducive to good political health.
If Harris thought the big boys would back down, however, she isn't as smart as she appears.
They are recruiting a candidate to run against her in the Republican primary. Florida House Speaker Allan Bense is the current object of their affection, but if he does not work out, they almost certainly will look elsewhere.
It's not that the big boys don't like Harris. They do; she is a down-the-line Bush supporter, whose smarts and personality would make her a fine candidate under other circumstances.
However, they worry her candidacy would be like waving a red flag in front of a charging bull. They very much want to win Nelson's seat, one of the few in the Sun Belt still held by a Democrat.
Their real concern is that her candidacy would drive a large Democratic turnout that could also cost the Republicans the governorship, with Jeb Bush term-limited.
A U.S. Senate seat is important, but even if Nelson wins, the Republicans will almost certainly keep control of that body. But the governorship of the country's most important swing state is the big enchilada of the 2006 elections.
Harris says she'll soldier on.
Perhaps.
She might want to consider former congressman Bill McCollum's 2004 experience, though. He had a year's head start on Martinez and was well-known and liked among Republicans. Yet he lost badly.
Republicans are different than Democrats in more ways than ideology. They tend to follow their leaders, especially in the rare cases when those leaders get involved in party primaries.
A Democrat in Harris' shoes might have a shot. Underdogs and insurgents carry greater cachet with Democrats.
Of course, the key is how actively the Bush brothers promote her eventual primary opponent. They could campaign for him, cut TV commercials, even make it difficult for Harris to raise money in addition to her own personal fortune.
Perhaps they are just trying to scare her.
If she is half as smart as her Harvard graduate degree suggests, she should be pretty frightened already.
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