Political Roundup from Bob Novak and John Gizzi
EVANS & NOVAK: Republicans are experiencing the frustration of power as
numerous political issues work against them. Public confidence in
Congress is currently very low by historical standards, and as the
majority, Republicans cannot help but shoulder the public's ill will.
Among the issues at work are the continued bloodshed in Iraq, the
controversy surrounding Majority Leader Tom DeLay, and President Bush's
failure so far to make Social Security reform palatable enough that it
becomes a political asset rather than a liability. Although the next
election is far away, these issues give Democrats plenty of ammunition
for next year. On the other hand, the issue of Democratic obstruction of
Bush's judicial nominations still works in Republicans' favor. The
Senate picture is shaping up to be worrisome for the GOP. NRSC fund
raising is far from exceptional. The DSCC chairman, Sen. Chuck Schumer,
has kept Dems at parity. Although our opinion is unchanged that they
will keep their majority in 2006, Republicans could suffer a bad
cycle-perhaps a loss of two seats. In Tennessee, Rhode Island, Montana,
Pennsylvania and possibly Texas, Republicans will need to defend open or
vulnerable seats. Sen. Rick Santorum (R.-Pa.) looks very ripe for
defeat, and Sen. Lincoln Chafee's (R.-R.I.) future remains in doubt as a
possible Republican primary looms. The Republican field in Tennessee has
become very crowded, and the Democratic hopeful, Rep. Harold Ford (D.),
is not to be taken lightly. GOP pick-up opportunities in the Senate have
also dimmed significantly. In Florida, Rep. Katherine Harris (R.) begins
as an underdog against Sen. Bill Nelson (D.). In Michigan, Sen. Debbie
Stabenow's (D.) approval numbers are unexpectedly strong. In Minnesota,
Rep. Mark Kennedy (R.) has fallen behind in fund raising, even though he
was supposed to be the favorite. In Nebraska, the White House appears
willing to let Sen. Ben Nelson (D.) alone. Although it is still
winnable, the race in North Dakota to unseat Sen. Kent Conrad (D) can
succeed only if Gov. John Hoeven (R.) gets in.
Read the rest of Bob Novak's weekly analysis here:
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