Andy, your comments and tom's have caused me to do some more work, but I still can't share your optimism about the current quarter. At least 4 of their top 5 customers (cisco, Bay, MOT and Madge) have announced problems with inventory levels, and the company has stated that it expects turns business to be 55% this quarter, with 40% of the quarter coming in September. I agree that Asia is where the growth will come from, but I worry that it won't be enough to offset the US, Europe and Japan, all of which showed sequential declines in revenue in the June quarter.
They may breeze through the quarter and do just fine, but I think the risk of a shortfall is greater at present than at any recent time.
With regard to Tom's post on gate-array replacements, I note that Xilinx has started offering a service to provide pin-compatible gate-arrays for their customers who want to convert. Its more expensive for the chips than a from-scratch design, but there is no NRE, so depending on volumes it can be cheaper. I don't own any XLNX, but I'm beginning to wish I did!
long, hedged, but still troubled. |
