Why TJ and the No-Brainer housing shorts might lose their money.
Offical rant on financial relativity theory applied to houses.
If a house measures $100 long x $100 wide and $10 high, it is a good-sized house of 100,000 cubic dollars.
When the $ pixelation processes, combined with China manufacturing maths and India productivity boom, shrink the size of the $ but without apparently changing the financial size of "Made in China" and "Developed in India", the weird outcome is that prices of goods and services decline, incomes stay about the same but some things, such as houses, get relatively "bigger".
So a bar of gold 5 years ago might have weighed $280, but without changing size, it now weighs $430.
The $100 x $100 x $10 house now measures $130 x $130 x $13 = 219,700 cubic dollars for an apparent doubling in size from the original 100,000 cubic dollars. Yet the house is in fact still suitable for the same number of human habitants, has the same views, access to city and facilities etc.
The size of the house can't suddenly shrink back to 100,000 cubic dollars because the measurement system under financial relativity theory has changed. And will keep changing as we continue to accelerate towards the financial speed limit which is equivalent to the speed of light in normal relativity theory.
The financial relativity speed limit is an asymptotic limit which we can never reach because the faster we go, the more financial energy is required to gain a bit more speed. Same as in normal relativity for moving stuff really fast.
Of course, this process can be interrupted by people like Pol Pot, Mao and ilk who decide they don't like the way things are going. Americans can vote for an Albanian type protectionist closed border. They can wage Armageddon style war to bring on The Rapture and "paradise" [which will of course look absolutely nothing like paradise when the smoke clears].
So, I'm not offering my usual double your money back guarantee. But, if electorates and rioters don't go nuts and destroy everything, financial relativity theory will continue to operate.
QCOM to $1 trillion by 2010! Maybe Google will beat them.
Mqurice |
