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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: mishedlo who wrote (34888)6/27/2005 10:16:58 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön  Read Replies (2) of 110194
 
current shale production in the US is i believe negligible or nonexistent. i have no idea whether it will be different in the future, but i think it would not be easy to produce a lot.

as for Canadian "coal tar sands", i have not heard that term, but maybe that is just my ignorance. if you mean tar sands, or the more politically correct oil sands, production is about 1 million bpd and expected to double by the end of the decade, to 2 million bpd.

to put those figures in perspective, existing conventional fields have a decline rate of about 4% a year. that means the incremental production gain of 1 million bpd thanks to oil sands production expansion by 2010 will only make up for about one-sixteenth of the supply loss from conventional fields over the next five years.

and that's assuming there is zero growth in crude demand over the next five years.

so, the oil sands are not going to save us from high oil prices.
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