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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room
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To: Sweet Ol who wrote (45342)6/27/2005 10:54:57 PM
From: Frank  Read Replies (1) of 206278
 
John -- I taught that class --I really did -- I respectfully disagree with your example and here is why --heads/tails is a dichotomy -only two outcomes --but the weather is a continuum and an infinite series of outcomes -- thus, the degrees of freedom in regressing toward the mean are far greater than a coin flip which has only one alternative outcome. On a bell curve last February was perhaps a standard deviation or more above the mean temperature -the chance of regression toward the mean are far greater than the 50/50 coin flip example-- I say odds favor us 90-10 (or more) -- but we are on the same page --NG believers like you and me are on the side of massive probability ---Frank
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