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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD)

AMD 214.87

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3:59 PM EST

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To: dougSF30 who wrote (162573)	6/28/2005 12:03:18 AM
From: niceguy767	Read Replies (1) of 275872

"If desktop A64 ASPs declined from $175 in Q1 to $125 in Q2 while desktop A64 units went from 1.5M to 2.5M," Note: Add 500k units if Y = 2X, which at $125 ASP is an additional $62.5M in revenues. (Not exactly immaterial, but then when did that ever matter for Doug) "and "all other" ASPs went from $65 to $70, with units going from 7.5M to 6.5M, then we get $750M in Q1, and $767 or so in Q2." The basic premise is and has been that if Athlon 64 units double in Q2 as per slide 17, then there is no way that AMD's Q2 CPG revenues come in at $750M or less. (Oh, they might if you lop off 500k Athlon 64 units in effort to force fit values. The point I'm making is that if you don't lop off 500k Athlon 64 units and drop Athlon 64 ASP by a whopping $50, you come in much higher than existing maximum $750M guidance. (If there is any substance to Mosseman's 50% loss reduction in flash, then Q2 is looking way beyond my eps contest estimates. So much so, that a revised upward guidance would seem imperative.)

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