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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index

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To: mishedlo who wrote (34519)6/28/2005 8:52:51 AM
From: Wyätt GwyönRead Replies (2) of 306849
 
For starters many people own their home for years and are not affected mortgage wise over time.

this is the wrong way to look at it, imo. i think what you fail to grasp is that asset inflation is still inflation. Jim Grant pointed that out for years vis-a-vis the stock market in the 1990s (and lately w/r/t the RE bubble). in other words, inflation can be expressed not just directly in consumer goods but in assets. let me explain how i look at it from an MPT perspective. understand here that what i have is a basket of asset classes which in total are a "net worth", of which personal RE is a fixed percentage. you could say that i have an RE "budget" which is defined as a percentage of my net worth.

if i lived in CA and was given a RE windfall, i would have a "problem", in that the inflated RE asset would be too large relative to my net worth. if my goal is to keep RE at 10% of net worth, i would have to constantly be trading down to a smaller sized house (funneling the realized gains to other asset classes so as to "rebalance").

exchanging one item (house #1) for a less valuable item (house #2) for the same price (10% of a basket of asset classes comprising the portfolio--house #1 was 10% at some point in the past, but due to inflation the less valuable house #2 is now equal to 10%) is exactly inflation. it is exactly like the person who has budgeted $6 for a movie now cannot watch the evening shows and must catch the matinee, or the lady who must eat cat food instead of steak. IOW, it is a "substitution trade" which is a direct expression of inflation.
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