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Strategies & Market Trends : Natural Resource Stocks

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To: isopatch who wrote (26272)	6/28/2005 2:58:36 PM
From: ItsAllCyclical	Read Replies (1) of 108787

Sitting on wallet. So far it's worked pretty well selling quite a bit last week. Some stocks are acting pretty well considering the pullback in gold, but it's really just day 1 of this correction so it's hard to tell. The sector overall is near a critical juncture and given the COTs I like the sidelines. Still sitting on probably an ave of 30% PMs with 1/3 to often 1/2 of that being HMY in various accts. I don't agree w/how the downtrend line was drawn, but agree on the uptrend line and that we've broken to the downside. Message 21456660 Also, agree with Roebear and Saville is saying the same thing that 192 is a critical line in the sand. If it goes the odds have increased dramatically that have much further to fall. I don't favor new lows in gold or the HUI at this point, but odds have increased for say a near retest of of the lows later in July/early Aug. Much depends on when and where the Fed will stop which is fairly contingent upon jobs, housing etc. As such I don't have any set game plan now, but just a rough idea and will let the market dictate when I come back in bulk again. Most of the FA regarding gold/Dollar has been discussed to death. I'm a strong believer in a multi-year cycle still for gold and we're not even to the public recognition stage yet. However, these stocks are too volatile for me not to try to time a good portion of my portfolio. I think anywhere from 1-6 months from now I'll be holding steady with a good portion for at least 6-12 months. Just don't think we're there yet. Another piece in the puzzle for me is how gold reacts to a rising Euro ST. If gold does indeed rise w/the Euro ST for several days in a row I'll likely add back in bulk. However, I still think odds are good that once the Euro starts to rise (at least ST) that many of the recent marginal buyers of gold (who fled the Euro) will sell gold and buy back the Euro reversing the trade we saw during the past 1-2 months.

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