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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (34964)6/28/2005 3:11:45 PM
From: John Vosilla  Read Replies (1) of 110194
 
Over the long term we'll all be dead. Sure you make money on an index of a major average as you would in your home or in a bank account over the long run. Leveraged real estate usually allows you to make 20-50% IRR over time and it doesn't take a special skill or talent and almost everyone succeeds. Today we are in a once in a lifetime bubble in many areas so nothing applies in those markets anymore. Few people can continually pyramid via options or futures over the long term without eventually getting wiped out. Leveraging via options and futures is even riskier than those flipping preconstruction condos these days. I'm sure you attempt to remain properly hedged if you keep most of your net worth into that stuff. As for stocks (many of which are already highly leveraged and the shareholder absorbs all the risk) all I see is the majority go down and then down some more even with these record low interest rates. Technical analysis proficiency and sector trends are a must but not something most average people would care to get into. Buy and hold is out perhaps for a long time it appears. Even the hottest of sectors get decimated like steel of late. Everything except the homebuilders that some here try to short<g>
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