Iso, Fillmore.... re: Sentiment, Styles, et al.
Fillmore... re:
["To be perfectly clear I am at least as bullish as you on the gold sector beyond this summer. But I do think this correction has further to go. HUI 180-185 and POG $420-425."]
... as we just saw a HUI 165-175 re-entry opp and a 40 Point "V" Bounce off of the bottom... I wouldn't be particularly shaken about a 50% retracement to HUI 180-185... in fact that is probably a level to be anticipated. Gold is clearly trading in a narrower range than the HUI stocks...but, as long as $400 POG holds... I think the Gold Bull is still fully intact.
I'll try to post some Charts later this weekend...and expand on where I think the Gold Bull is going.
Iso, regarding labeling anyone "bearish" :
Peter Brimelow's article about Mark Hulbert of the Institutionally well subscribed & equally well followed Hulbert Digest and his comments on The Gold Newsletter Writers still bearish sentiment (actually he termed it "at best - neutral")...matches pretty well with what I think, I clearly see across the Internet Discussion Boards, as still bearish, or at best - "neutral" Sentiment towards Goldstocks and the sustainability of this Rally.
I'm not knocking any particular trading style, or group of traders...other than I am not sure how profitable it's been for those that nay-sayed the bottom here, who were looking for HUI 120-150 and who seem to have been "out" for around 30 of the 40 points of the resulting "V" bounce off of that bottom that we've just had ? - maybe some were in for 30 of the 40... but, that's irrelevant and not my point here.
My main point is that I think both the Gold Newsletter Writer and Individual Trader Sentiment - as confirmed by what I see here on SI, is still bearish - Hulbert says "neutral"... I can live with that. Obviously there are many Bullish Articles on Kitco,Gold Eagle, 321Gold etc...but, there are equally as many who are still waiting for much lower, lows... and even more importantly - of those that are still Bullish... the majority have always been Bullish... all the way up, all the way down and still are here...
I find the neutral & bearish sentiment especially "interesting" given the still strongly bullish & positive underlying fundamental drivers for Gold and that GOLD is still above both it's 50 & 200 dma, has a beautifull longterm chart and is ONLY - 5%...yes, f-i-v-e measley, teenie, weenie, itsy, bitsy, miniscule points off of it's entire Cycle HIGHS here !?!?!?
Those "neutral, or bearish" could blink here... and the Headlines they might wake up to could be :
Gold hit's New Highs !
And that Divergence between stocks & the metal would be closing mighty fast...
But yet we've got Goldstocks still at a substantial discount & divergence from that Gold/Bullion strength.
That imo, is clear confirmation of a strong degree of bearish sentiment towards goldstocks.
But, that's good news.
Rally's built upon very hard fought Hamburger Hill-esque ground....is ground that later is not so easily given up...and many a great rally was built upon a wall of worry and doubt.
So all of that aside...we'll just have to wait and see what happens as we close out the Month & 1st Quarter of 2005 here and hope that some of the Fireworks over the coming 4th of July weekend are symbolic of what's yet to come for the Goldstocks in July.
Still On, Still verrrrry Long and hanging Strong the Yellow Dog here.
As long as Elvis hasn't left the Building...we'll be fine.
;)
$` |
