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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index
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To: unrealistic_thoughts who wrote (34605)6/29/2005 3:46:04 AM
From: mishedloRead Replies (3) of 306849
 
Why is that "This time its different" ??

I have explained the differences between now and the 80's a zillion times.

The difference is wages.
in the 70's and 80's we had real wage growth.
Oil prices were rising like mad but you should have seem my pay raises as an engineer and as a a computer programmer.

Now we have had oil rise from 25 to over 60.
tell me what wages have done.
No on second thought I will tell you: NOTHING is what.

We also did not have enormous increases in consumer debt like we do now. so there are plenty of differences between now and the 70's and 80's.

We also did not have globalization then, outsourcing then, productivity improvements like we see now all of which are eating jobs like mad.

In short the reason why it's different is because it is different. I admit most of the time people think its different when it is not. In this case it IS different but people think it is not different. The irony is staggering.

Show me job and wage growth (not walmart jobs replacing engineers either) and I will show you inflation. Unless and until you show me that, Greenspan will remain in a conundrum.

Every and I mean every absurd credit expansion fueled by massive debt has ended in a deflationary bust. Now you tell me why this time is different.

If you want to read a book I highly recommend The dollar Crisis by Duncan. He will explain what I just said in great detail.

Tomorrows gold is another one.
They are the first two books on my list here:
globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Mish
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