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Technology Stocks : SCO Group (SCOX)

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From: Scott C. Lemon	7/1/2005 11:15:02 AM
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Hello all, I started a conversation on the Novell thread about this subject, and wanted to see if there were any real smart technical analysis types out there that could assist in quantifying this possibility: How much of a settlement would it take to make SCOX double in price? ALL RELIGION ASIDE! Let's just say that IBM chooses to settle. The lawyers take their cut. The rest goes into the SCOX coffers. What would be in the impact on the SCOX stock price? Looking at today's news, Microsoft paid IBM $775 Million to settle ... what if IBM pays SCOX $500 Million to settle? Or more? Or less? news.com.com I'm asking this as a learning lesson ... to understand the technical and financial issues ... as I am now seriously averaged in at ~$3.90/share on SCOX. For some background, my last start-up was bought by SCO just prior to the lawsuit being announced ... we had no prior knowledge of it coming. I left a year later as a vested, and have then bought in more to average down. What I'm looking for is some true investment analysis ... on possible outcomes to the upside. I am COMPLETELY aware that things could go south, and that my entire investment could go towards nothing ... no biggy to me. This is a "freebie" risk that I was willing to bet on ... So anyone have any real analysis? Or pointers on how to assess what could happen? In the case of a settlement, just how much money might flow into the company, and how might that effect the shareholders? $100 Million? $200 Million? $1 Billion? How might these amounts be reflected in the share price? Scott C. Lemon the.inevitable.org

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