The trend of China's petroleum consumption
Last Updated(Beijing Time):2005-07-01 13:59
By Chen Geng
With the recovery of the world economy and the acceleration of the globalization process, as well as the rapid development of China's national economy and the ever-greater openness of the Chinese market, the macro-economic situations in and out of China have been taking place profound changes.
From the perspective of the situation of the domestic economic development, China is now at the development stage, when its degrees of industrialization, urbanization, marketization and internationalization grow incessantly, and the contradiction of resources constraints gradually emerged and will loom larger and larger with the ever-growing economy scale and resources consumption.
Currently and for some time in future, China's petroleum security is facing and will continue to face relatively grim situation. There are in general five basic judgments as follows:
Firstly, petroleum consumption ushers in a period of comparatively rapid growth. The gap between petroleum supply and demand is widening, which becomes one of the major constraints of China's economic growth. It was predicted that by 2020, China's annual consumption of petroleum would increase by 3 percent on average, the output of crude oil would undergo steady growth, and the volume of petroleum import would grow on a yearly basis.
Secondly, the natural gas industry has ushered in a period of rapid development. It was forecast by foreign institutions on energy research that in the next 20 to 30 years, the total consumption of natural gas in the world might have exceeded that of petroleum, thus becoming the No. 1 energy in the world. It was predicted that in quite some time in future China's output of natural gas would grow by nearly 10 percent, its consumption would also enter a stage of rapid growth, and the proportion of natural gas in energy consumption structure would increase to around 10 percent, becoming the third largest energy next only to coal and petroleum.
Thirdly, with the expedition of the urbanization process and the ever-improvement of the standard of living of the people, the consumption of petroleum and petrochemical products will grow by a large margin, setting higher and higher requirements for the quality and variety of products. At present, the demands in the refined oil product market are booming, and refining plants are running in full capacity. All the major petroleum companies are making great efforts to increase the supply of petroleum products and chemical products, the output and quality of which score new highs, yet there are also times when local short supply occurs in the market.
Fourthly, China's energy saving effort has yielded notable results, but as compared with foreign developed countries in terms of energy utilization efficiency, China's gap with them is relatively large and its room for petroleum savings is very large. Currently, China's technology of some major energy-consuming equipment is yet to be improved. China's unit energy consumption of high energy-consuming products is generally higher than the average level of the developed countries, and its overall energy utilization efficiency is lower than developed countries by ten percentage points.
Lastly, the petroleum and natural gas resources are unevenly distributed in the world. The contradiction between resources supply and demand in Asia-Pacific Region is relatively conspicuous. The petroleum and natural gas resources in the world can maintain the basic balance between supply and demand for a relatively long period of time as a whole. But the distribution of production and consumption is uneven: the petroleum are mainly produced in Middle-East, former Soviet Union and North America, while the consumption is concentrated in North America, Europe and the Asia-Pacific Region. The contradiction between supply and demand in Asia-Pacific Region is relatively conspicuous: the workable reserves remained in Asia-Pacific Region accounts for about 3.7 percent of that of the world, and the petroleum output accounts for 10 percent or so of the world aggregate output, while its consumption accounts for 30 percent or so of the world total.
This year, experts are very concerned about China's energy supply. As pointed out by Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao in its Government Work Report the tensions in coal, electricity, oil and transportation must be given high attention. In face of the soaring consumption demands for petroleum and petrochemical products, China's petroleum industry will face a series of opportunities and challenges.
To ensure China's petroleum security, state-owned enterprises, the backbone ones which have a bearing on the national security and life line of national economy in particular, shoulder important political and social responsibilities and play an important role in safeguarding the comprehensive, coordinated and sustainable development of China's economic society.
Source:CE.cn
en.ce.cn |
