Booms, Busts, and Recoveries Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: Moominoid who wrote (65880)	7/3/2005 6:58:38 PM
From: shades	Read Replies (1) of 74559

From Let's Make A Deal with Monty - Monty would open a door with a goat behind it - and it would have to be one of the 2 doors you did not pick. The door you picked would always remain closed. Over time you could win with the right strategy, this confused some of the people arguing with marilyn perhaps - they were arguing from this being a one time event. I believe Marilyn found it obvious that when you called the problem - the "let's make a deal problem" - you would know the rules by being familiar with monty and watching this wild game show - perhaps that is where the confusion came in for some people - they did not live in america and never watched Let's Make A Deal. Thier lack of cultural reference to this game show left confusion in foreigners perhaps while those of us that watched it were familiar with the underlying assumptions. As the links show - Monty's tricks works against the individual and thier psychology - they don't want to believe things that are true because it seems counterintuitve. He admitted if vos savant or others of her ilk were coming on his show and working the probabilities to thier advantage and always switching - that he would have to change the rules on switching because it would make the show have to give away too many cars as prizes, the probabilities would no longer work to the benefit of the show (or house in the case of vegas) - but instead to the benefit of the contestants - and here is the magic so few understand about wall street I feel - they have run these numbers like Monty - and smart kids like that SHO kid wrote thier playbooks - and if everyone invested the Vos Savant way - they would have to change the rules which they will do with thier buds in congress just like the Casino bans certain people from playing cards - they only want dumb people that will not win over time by making good decisions - but the way it's going now - wall street can keep sucking money from the poor contestant - the sucker traders and investors - while long term the house (wall street) gets richer.

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