Gamblers--can you make a living? Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Pastimes : Gamblers--can you make a living?

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: Mark Marcellus who wrote (22)	7/4/2005 1:40:14 AM
From: Solon	Read Replies (1) of 113

If myself and the dealer BOTH have 12 to 16, then he will break about 50% of the time on the drawing of his first card. If he gets to draw a second card he will have chances to break or to improve. I don't have a calculator in front of me right now, but I can get you the exact chances of breaking on the drawing of one card later if you like. I will not tackle the complications of drawing two or more cards. My odds of busting if I were forced to draw would be PRECISELY the same as his. I do appreciate your point, but remember that the "best play" only shades the odds minimally in this instance. To take another example. If I have two nines I have a very good chance of having a winning or a tied hand against an eight showing. Yet it is still to my benefit to split the nines against the eights because I then have TWO hands with better possibilities than the dealer hand. On the other hand...I don't split them against the seven because in one out of 3.2 tries the dealer will lose on his hole card of a ten spot. Using your argument one could say that one should not double down on 11 against a ten either because (obviously) I should draw against a ten if I get a 12, 13, 14, 15, or 16 because drawing would be the "best play". But I don't think you would argue that one should not double 11 against a ten on that basis...right? When I double on a ten I will have an ace (and no chance of losing) one of 13 times. The rest of the time I will have an equal chance on one draw...and many of his ONE CARD draws in the 12-16 range where I must stay will break him. For instance, if he draws to 16 then 8 of 13 ONE CARD draws will break him--about 62 % against him. And nothing in probability says we will both have 16. Hell. I might have 20 when he draws to 16 or vice versa. I have as much chance to break when drawing to 12-16 as he does. The question is whether his (or my) chance to improve is better when we both have the exact same total (12-16) than the risk of breaking--and to what degree my chance of a one card draw to 21 (which he does not have) affects this close call. I don't think there is a clear answer to this. It is a close call. I have given my opinion and I do appreciate yours.

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next