So my strategy is to pick fund managers whose philosophies I agree with and invest with them.
That is a great way to win, buffet has said this was a good strategy.
where I think I have an edge which is technical analysis and broad macro timing.
It has worked for the wizard and phil and others no? The philster I am not so sure about - he has told some lies that Slagle caught him in, and made some trades that seems would have been impossible. He is fully out of the market right now so starting tuesday we will be having a clean slate to track phil.
datacademy.com
I know you think phil is an idiot - he was a ski champion at least - hehe.
Phil Grande is the host and creator of Stock Trading & Money Talk. Talk about diversity! As a young man, Phil toured on the world free-style skiing circuit and captured the world free style championship title. Instead of a lifetime of professional athleticism, he opted for the financial road to freedom. This was the early 1970’s, and the beginning of his privately held investment firm. As the 80’s wore on, his privately held investment firm grew into the largest privately held land company in the United States. Was that SKILL or LUCK Moo? It made the prestigious annual list of the “500 fastest growing privately held companies in the United States” by INC Magazine in 1986 and 1987. By then, Phil was using his skills to take over privately held companies that were in or near bankruptcy and reorganize them. He would identify their illness and write a prescription to bring them back to health by replacing management, funding them with his own capital and through private placements. Sounds like buffet doesn't it MOO? It was by using this strategy that he was named “Entrepreneur of the Year in the United States” in 1987. He was also recognized by the then Big A accounting firm of Arthur Young and Venture Magazine.
By marketing aggressively using radio and television, he was also credited for being one of the early pioneers of infomercials. He retired to Florida, but decided to start trading two and a half years ago. Combine that with prior seminar circuit and radio show experience, and you’ll know how Phil came to the idea of doing a financial radio show., “Stock Trading and Money Talk”.
joopdog.com
Some of his advice:
Don't listen to noise (fundamentals analysis) about a stock
Have a game plan. Don't buy the stocks, buy the pattern. Buy the money flow.
Look for stock with large volumes trades. It tells us the institutions are trading that stock.
Trading Ranges are important. That's telling us that the institutions are supporting the stock.
Follow the rotation in the market. From sector to sector.
A mutual fund is where the fund manger gets paid regardless if he makes money for you., no sweat if he doesn’t, after all he still gets paid, and its your money at risk. A mutual funds primary goal is to raise money, then let the economy manage the fund .Making money is a low priority. Raising money (collecting assets) is primary. This is what Wall Street does not want you to know. It's called gathering assets.
Stock Firm (Brokerage Houses)
They don't make their money 2% or 3% commissions. They make it by selling you their inventory of stocks.
brokerage houses are crooks.
Wall Street wants to screw us, the retail customer.
don't believe upgrades and downgrades
it tells you nothing
it serves the brokerage firm, who serve the Wall Street
Wall Street never talk about technicals
Hedge fund (you can make money while the stock is going up or down). Hedge funds are not regulated, however they are set up where the fund manager shares in the profits and risk, they can buy stocks, short as well as go long. A mutual fund can only go long
Remember what I taught you, on a day the stock opens high wait till 10:30 to see if it holds, because the major brokerage firms pay off the specialist in the pit to tell them the order flow. If they're told the order flow is to the upside then the rally will hold, if not they will short the rally and screw their own clients.
Now MOO Phil and the Wiz seem to have tight stops, take a lot of small losses and a few big gains and do well long term with this strategy - I agree a company is not its stock regarding GOOG - but those emotional investors blur the 2 entities.
I shorted goog, my timing was wrong, the general did too, his timing was wrong, knowing WHAT IS and WHAT MUST BE does not seem to be our aggregate problem - timing it or implementing a trading strategy where timing makes the least impact is the key. How long can the fed and the crooks keeps the party going, is there even an incentive for the fed to take away the punch bowl anymore - maybe that would make too many party goers angry - best to give them more punch, let them pass out drunk - and while they are snoozing make off with thier wallets.
Our collective guesses about when sellers will dump this or wall street crooks will let this fall was at odds with the mass psychology - we guessed wrong.
So what trading system can you implement to maximize a short on goog without knowing the specific point it will collapse? Buy of puts Phil says trade the PATTERN, not the stock, Slagle wouldn't spend his valuable time listening at the philster if there wasn't some truth to his words.
zealllc.com
(Chapter VII) … “When I am bearish and I sell a stock, each sale must be at a lower level than the previous sale. When I am buying, the reverse is true. I must buy on a rising scale. I don’t buy long stock on a scale down, I buy on a scale up.”
This quotation leads off a fascinating few pages in Reminiscences where Jesse Livermore details the right way to open up a new speculative position. Scaling into trades sounds simple, but it is an absolutely brilliant strategy based on the psychology of trading, probability theory, and our imperfect knowledge of the near-term future in the markets. Scaling is essential to protect us from our own volatile emotions!
The natural tendency of speculators is to avoid scaling all together. We study conditions, we start getting excited as the stars seem to be lining up in our favor, and when things finally feel right we want to pull the trigger immediately and deploy 100% of our capital at once. I have done this, you have done this, and pretty much everyone playing the game has experienced this normal behavior sometime in their earlier years of speculating!
Taking the big plunge however, throwing out a whole line at once rather than gradually scaling in, is extremely risky and not very prudent. First, the psychology of speculation gets in the way. If conditions look so ideal that a speculator is willing to consider betting everything at once, then emotions will be running high. There is nothing like greed and fear to cloud our minds as we ponder the markets and trading. By trading all at once, the very real risk exists that the decision will be much more emotional than rational. Emotional decisions often lead to big losses.
Second, it is impossible for us mere mortals to know exactly when a major tradable interim top or bottom in a primary trend has arrived in real-time. Sure, over the years our guesses of turning points during tops and bottoms will become more accurate with experience, but no one really knows until after the fact. The probabilities of consistently picking the exactly ideal moment to trade every time are almost zero. As such, anytime you are preparing to take a big plunge, odds are your timing is less than ideal. |
