Booms, Busts, and Recoveries Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: shades who wrote (65952)	7/5/2005 1:41:52 PM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (2) of 74559

Yes - I'm thinking a proximate cause of the real estae bubble pooping could be a Hurricane in Florida.... Part of the problem with leaving early from New Orleans is some fraction of the population - about 30% or so - will need to move when the Hurricane is 48 to 60 hours out. At that point, there may still be uncertainty about where the storm will hit - so schools and businesses have not closed. Makes it tought to get everyone togeter to leave. A fifth grader won't be able to drive themselves... The other, more subtle issue is that the predictiablity of a storms path varies from time to time - some wander all over, and some are locked in like a bowling ball rolling in gutter. This is difficult for both the public and various government types to deal with. So unless New Orleans becomes willing to shut down business for about 2-3 days every time Hurricane lines up, which could be three time a season, they will expose peopl to considerable risk. Any state that has drive thru Margarita take out is pretty comfortable with risk.... ****** Joe Bastardi had a comment that if you lived in Florida North of Tampa your odds of being hit by a Hurricane were about 1/3 being South of Tampa.

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