Hey T,
Do you have any concerns with the small caps outpacing the larger caps? The only place I know to do comparisions is with BigCharts (so I can't post a chart).
Comparing the NAZ against the NDX (Qs):
For the past...
1 month - NAZ +3%
2 months - NAZ +2.25%
3 months - NAZ +2.5%
6 months - NAZ +2.75%
Anyway, typically, the NAZ moves back toward the Qs when they spread apart. And, the kind of spread we're seeing now is about as wide as it usually may get (i.e. an extreme). Most of the time, you'll see a spread of about .5% - 1% difference.
I'm still long 1X the Qs from 36.85, but I'm thinking about closing that once/if we hit the 20sma and maybe going short the RUT (Rydex Inverse Small-Cap) if that index fails to make new highs. Over the last 3 months, the RUT is +4.5% better the Qs, so I think a better bang for my shorting dollar.
1-3 days, bullish
3-10 days, bearish
10-30 days, bullish
J.K.
edit: notice the negative divergence on MACD with the RUT:
stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[dc][pd20,2!b20!f][vc60][iLk12!La8,17,9]&pref=G |
