"For example, in a single deck game where the dealer shows a 10, it would be 15 to 4"
Of course the probability changes minimally as the cards are dealt. This does not really affect our discussion, though. At another time (whether in one deck or 6 decks) it might be 17-4. The AVERAGE over time will be 16-4. Regardless of decks and at any one instance there will be less or more than a 16-4 chance. Also...unless you see ALL the cards which have been put into play, you can only guess at the probability. The fact that the dealer has a ten cannot inform you. Every other player at the table might have two tens or they might have none. If you are playing a face up game it will be multi-deck and can hardly assist adjusting your basic strategy. I am not speaking to card counting as I believe that it is now a waste of time. They already shuffle so early as to make it irrelevant. And if they even suspect you are a counter, they will shuffle even earlier.
"Would be interested in hearing a counter argument"
I always double with an 11, too. The one of 3.2 chances of me getting an (almost certain) win with a ten (and at least a push)--makes it lucrative theoretically. But his extra draws to the ace very often give an unbroken hand and (of course) 2 of 3 times I DON'T get the ten--although (hopefully I will get the 9 or 8!).
Interesting story I read the other day! There is a game called Boule that is (apparently) played in some French casinos. It is somewhat like roulette except that it has a vig of 11.1 %!! Twenty feet away there is a roulette wheel with a 2.7 % vig! Go figure!!
This is one of the reasons for this thread. Whether or not one is included in that rare breed that wishes to attempt a living at gambling (which many here surely do in the stock market)--there is still no reason to fear the casino or to go there to LOSE! I think anyone can win more often than lose if they understand and follow some basic principles of probability. The "following" is the hard part!
The house edge is ALWAYS there. But short term probabilities of random events can be exploited with betting systems. The more one plays to win the less chance that one WILL win. My motto is win small or not at all. By small I mean far less units than you are prepared to lose at session. However, if the units are $100, then 4 units is not necessarily small for perhaps ten minutes work...
The lack of a losing limit is suicide. The absence of a winning limit is also suicide.
For fun...here is a "system" that is sold to people year after year! The middle column in roulette has 8 blacks and only 4 reds. You can bet a buck on the middle and you get 2-1 payback. And you can bet $2.00 on black at even money. You have eight turns which win $4.00 and ten turns which win $1.00 and four turns which are a push. Why is the house vig (on our American wheel) still 5.26 %??
BTW...nothing wrong with this system as part of a short-term betting strategem. But you can never change the house vig.
I am entering a blackjack tournament this evening. First prize is under a thousand but buy-in is only $20.00. It is just fun but the strategy is nothing at all like playing with your own money! Here we play against each other with house money!
I would love to hear how others approach these events. Because of the betting order one must make adjustments on the fly and be aware at all times of where everyone is at. If your bet is in the first half, the smart or the reckless can knock you out! Well...it IS gambling!
I think today I am going to play a labby each round for as often as I can get through it. Those who play the Labouchere will appreciate that it can become difficult when you must keep your chips stacked. In ordinary play I simply line the chips just as though it were pencil and paper. One, one, one, two, three, etc. And I bet from the back pile. Doing it mentally is difficult and detracts from the observation of other hands and other floats--especially in a long losing streak. But as I said...in tourney play you must be prepared to examine the moment as it were and try whatever is necessary... |
