*It seems Stratfor is either catering to some of the agencies paying for bulk subscriptions or subtley campaigning for certain policy changes.
By saying that the inevitable was planned for Iraq, they make it easier to pull back from untenable positions.
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As for the North Korea thing, the idea that North Korea would be allowed to play off China against the US is pretty funny.
Maybe Dear Leader with hair like a Chia pet thinks he can do it.
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Today, July 2005, China has a 600 Billion USD surplus.
How much will be left in 5 years ? 7 years ?
600 Billion is alot, but it is not infinity.
One thing learned by Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Japan and the government of California :
There is no surplus so big it can't be spent or mis-spent.
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Compare with Japan :
NEC buys Packard - Bell, a 3rd level desktop computer maker with a didgy reputation.
Lenovo buys the IBM Thinkpad, the laptop with the best reputation.
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However, near zero cost of capital will not last forever, but it can cause some really bad things to occur.
Japan has these four lane wide suspension bridges to islands with less than 10,000 people, that in the future will still have populations of less than 10,000 people.
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The investment questions - how long before the peak surplus occurs ? Now or two or three years ?
Then, when will the minimum occur ? That could be as long as ten years away.... |
