GlobalSantaFe (IL/A): Raising estimates + fair value to $52 Goldman Sachs July 11, 2005
Following a fleet status released Friday, we are raising our 2005-07 EPS estimates for GSF to $1.57/$3.30/$4.00 from $1.55/$2.70/$3.50 due to higher dayrate assumptions for the N. Sea deepwater and N. Sea + W. Africa jackup markets. GSF's N. Sea semis Arctic II + IV were contracted at $200k/day vs. our model at $150 + the leading edge appears headed to the $250k. This is also bullish for RIG, DO + NE. GSF's HD-HE jackup Constellation II contracted at $120k vs. our $85k + spot rates for HD-HE jackups in the N. Sea appear to be moving to $175k = also above consensus + bullish for RDC. In the US Gulf, GSF's 4th gen semi Celtic Sea contracted at $325k/day (bullish for NE, DO, RIG) beginning late 2006 vs. our previous estimate of $225k. We are raising our fair value estimate for GSF to $52 (10x 2006 EV/ EBITDA) from $45 = 25% upside. We maintain our IL/A rating with a positive bias.
I, Terry Darling, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. |
