Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD)

AMD 208.37

+2.6%

12:08 PM EST

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To: dougSF30 who wrote (165098)	7/13/2005 7:34:06 PM
From: Petz	Read Replies (1) of 275872

IIRC, "nominal" Q2 seasonality is down 7% in units. That's confirmed by the fact that from 1999 through 2004 (6 years), CPG revenues declined on average by 15%, with a 17% standard deviation. See Message 20994550 Only once in those 6 years (mid 2000) was AMD Q2 CPG revenues higher than Q1. Q2'05 makes it 2 out of 7 and changes the average decline to about 12%. Now it's possible that Intel does better than this, but Intel's revenue guidance for this quarter is for a -1.4% to -3.5% Q/Q decline, and they've been saying "ASPs were approximately flat" for eons. If they don't change that language and admit an ASP decline of a few percent, there is 0 chance that they gained market share. (Whew, just found that spreadsheet. Time to update it, all the numbers above are correct.) PS - but please don't wish for a mid-2000-like stock price reaction! Petz

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