WLD re re: market share
The previous quarter Apple's market share was right at 2% (Apple -> 1M, Global PC Shipments -> 50M). I expect nothing significant changed this Q.
As usual, your grasp of numbers seems elusive. Two items bear mentioning (yet again). First, Apple's share of the worldwide PC market was better than 2.3% last quarter, while its share of the U.S. PC market was 3.9%. Both numbers are available here, and are based on IDC's preliminary estimates of the respective markets:
Message 21285641
idc.com
You will notice that neither of these numbers is "right at 2%".
Second, regarding your statement that "I expect nothing significant changed this Q":
This depends on what one regards as "significant". Will it be an order of magnitude different this quarter? Frankly, no. Will it change Apple's rank among PC vendors? Maybe. Anyway, here's what we do know:
For 3 of 4 years for which I have IDC data (6 years overall), worldwide PC sales declined by 1-3% from CY 1Q to CY 2Q. In the other year (1999, the height of the Internet bubble), worldwide PC sales increased by 4% between the first and second calendar quarters. In other words, worldwide PC sales are usually sequentially stagnant between the first and second quarters. Meanwhile, Apple's worldwide PC sales increased by more than 10% sequentially in the just-concluded quarter. Even you shouldn't be challenged to make these simple extrapolations:
1. Apple's share of the worldwide PC market should increase from 2.32% to between 2.64% (assuming a 3% sequential decline in overall global PC sales) and 2.46% (assuming a 4% sequential increase in overall global PC sales).
2. Apple's share of the U.S. PC market should increase from 3.9% to between 4.38% (assuming a 3% sequential decline in overall global PC sales) and 4.09% (assuming a 4% sequential increase in overall global PC sales). Note that Apple was the #5 vendor of PCs in the U.S. last quarter, while IBM was #4 with 4.3% of the domestic market. So yes, there's a possibility that Apple will pass IBM/Lenovo on that list, particularly if Lenovo's sales dropped off as a result of Lenovo's acquisition of IBM's PC business.
We should know more by early next week, when IDC's estimates for the just-concluded quarter are likely to be published.
Now, back to the point about whether these changes are "significant". Well, perhaps they won't be in your estimation, seeing as how you have such a poor grasp of these numbers in the first place (you were off by more than 8% on global PC sales, after all, though at least this is an improvement compared to your even sloppier use of numbers last quarter). But analysts are not as sloppy as you are. And they are going to make the most of any opportunity to exploit fractional changes in the marketplace, particularly with respect to picking out trends. And here are the trends:
Apple's market share will probably increase sequentially by between 6% and 13% worldwide, and by between 5% and 12% domestically. This will raise eyebrows in the industry, journalists will raise a good hue and cry about it, and analysts will adjust their estimates (and valuations) accordingly.
My predictions? Well, I'll keep them simple: Don Green will pretend that none of this matters, and you will pretend that it's not "significant". |
