Hurricane Emily in the southeastern Caribbean
AT 8 AM EST...1200Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES IS DISCONTINUED...AND THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR GRENADA IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM PEDERNALES WESTWARD TO PUNTO FIJO...INCLUDING ISLA MARGARITA AND THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS NORTH OF THE COAST AND WEST OF CUMANA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA LATER THIS MORNING.
As of 8 a.m. EDT, Hurricane Emily was centered at 12.4 north, 62.9 west, or about 85 miles west-northwest of the island of Grenada. The estimated central pressure is 991 millibars (29.26 inches). Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 90 mph with higher gusts. Emily is moving toward the west-northwest at 18 mph.
Emily is moving into, and should stay, in a mostly favorable environment for intensification. Shear remains low, average surface pressures in the area remain low and water temperatures remain high. We believe that Emily will track across the southeastern Caribbean and intensify into a category 2 hurricane by tomorrow, as it moves away from the northern part of South America. It should take a track south of Hispaniola tomorrow and tomorrow night and is on a course that will take it close to or just south of Jamaica Saturday and Saturday night. Emily has the potential to strengthen into a Category 3 hurricane this weekend on its way toward the Yucatan Peninsula. Emily may pose a threat to the south Texas Coast sometime during the middle of next week.
A tropical wave is along 39 west, south of 21 north; a 1011 millibar low is along the wave axis, near 15 north. Fairly strong convection, or thunderstorms, are occurring mainly north of the low pressure area. This system is moving west, and will be watched for strengthening.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic, there is a tropical wave near the African coast along 21 west, south of 19 west. A weak tropical wave is along 46 west, south of 17 north. A tropical wave is over the Yucatan, along 91 west, south of 19 north, moving into the eastern Pacific.
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