I got the number from a Chinese site, but they got the number here from WGC site,
gold.org
Click on the press release at the end of the 1st para.
then it prompts you a MS Word file. In case any one does not use the MS Word, I copy the file here
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EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG DEMAND FOR GOLD IN FIRST QUARTER 2005
UNDER STRICT EMBARGO UNTIL 07:00HRS (ET), 1 JUNE 2005
• Q1’05 sees gold demand rise 26% in tonnage terms (32% in dollar terms) year-on-year
• Year-on-year jewellery demand rises 19% in tonnage terms (25% in dollar terms)
• Gold backed ETFs contribute 89 tonnes to overall demand
New York, London, 1 June 2005: The first quarter of 2005 saw exceptionally strong demand for gold, particularly from the jewellery sector, from bar and coin purchases and from investment in gold backed exchange traded funds (ETFs), according to quarterly figures released today by the World Gold Council.
End-user consumption (which includes all identifiable categories of demand) was 26% higher in tonnage terms and 32% higher in dollar terms, compared to the same period in 2004. This strong demand absorbed an additional supply coming on to the market, primarily from increased central bank sales, while sustaining an average price level of $427.35 per ounce, 5% higher than a year earlier.
A number of factors explain the strength of demand seen in the Q1’05 figures compiled for the World Gold Council by GFMS Ltd, including increased and successful promotion of jewellery, the introduction of new investment products, and an undercurrent of political and economic unease favouring gold investment. Alone, these factors would have supported a continuation of last year’s buoyant trends, but favourable price movements added impetus.
With consumers now accustomed to gold prices over $400/oz, and a growing consensus that the price of gold could rise further, the small retreat in the gold price from the peaks seen in Q4’04 was seen as a strong buying opportunity. For much of the first quarter the price fluctuated between $420-440/oz. Anecdotal reports suggest demand rose strongly when the price fell towards the lower end of this range.
James Burton, Chief Executive of the World Gold Council, commented on the demand figures: “We’ve seen an incredibly strong quarter for gold demand, both in jewellery and investment. Investment figures were supported by the good performance of gold backed ETFs, endorsing the World Gold Council’s policy of rolling out these innovative investment products. Recent economic conditions were ripe for long-term gold investors who for the first time in the US had the ideal vehicle in which to put their investments.
“We are particularly encouraged to see that the upward trend in gold jewellery demand over the last two years has been sustained. Promotional campaigns for gold jewellery are clearly bearing fruit, with market research indicating that advertising and marketing campaigns are hitting the right note. There is however still a lot to do to regain levels of demand that past experience has indicated can be achieved, against a backdrop of an increasingly competitive luxury goods market with large marketing budgets.”
Outlook for Q2’01
The factors supporting continued increasing demand for gold remain largely in place. Any further weakening in the dollar will support investment demand, although any resultant sharp rise in the gold price may constrain jewellery purchases. A positive factor for the gold market is a likely reduction over the next two quarters in central bank sales due to the timing of Central Bank Gold Agreement (CBGA) sales.
Jewellery Demand
The upward demand trend witnessed over the past two years was sustained in Q1’05. Jewellery demand was 19% higher in tonnage terms (25% in dollar terms) compared to the same period a year earlier. With the exception of Europe and Japan, all countries saw a year-on-year increase in jewellery consumption, with India seeing an exceptional increase of 72%.
There is increasing evidence that promotional efforts drive much of the demand for jewellery. Market research results indicate more favourable attitudes and increasing propensity to buy in target markets. This has occurred despite a large price rise. However, continued promotion is still necessary to regain levels of demand seen in the past, and with a continuing increase in competition form other luxury goods and services, promotion must be sustained - not just in an attempt to gain market share, but so that gold jewellery can hold its own against competing products.
Industrial Demand
Q1’05 saw a slight dip in overall industrial demand for gold in tonnage terms, but a slight rise in value terms, compared to the same period a year earlier. The largest category, gold used in electronics components, saw a fall in demand of 6% year-on-year. Slowing of electronics demand from the boom conditions of last year, and a possible reaction to a stock build-up in intermediate components in the second half of 2004, explain this dip.
In contrast to electronics, decorative and other industrial uses continued to grow strongly. Over one quarter of this category of demand comes from India and was driven by its buoyant economic conditions; this includes jari, gold thread used in ceremonial and other saris. In the Western world, fashion has contributed to decorative demand, with current tastes favouring gold coloured accessories.
Investment Demand
In Q1’05 investment in gold coins and bars saw vibrant demand in the four major markets of India, Japan, Vietnam and Turkey. Offtake was supported by political and economic unease as well as favourable price movements.
Gold backed ETFs (and similar products), which are sold to both retail and institutional investors, contributed 89 tonnes to overall demand. Trends in the rest of the non-retail investment market were closer to neutral over the quarter as a whole with a period of net disinvestment for the first half of the quarter, followed by a period of net buying.
The difference in the trends witnessed in the two categories is largely due to differing investor horizons, with ETFs attracting many investors who are new to gold and those who have a longer-term view. Tactical considerations such as ongoing economic and political worries, as well as fears over the medium-term outlook for the US dollar, all supported the longer-term strategic arguments for gold as an investment. In contrast, the recovery in the dollar at the beginning of 2005, and speculation over International Monetary Fund (IMF) gold sales were negative factors for gold from the point of view of a shorter-term investor.
Supply
The supply of gold was 23% higher in Q1’05 than it was in the first quarter of last year, driven by an increase in central bank sales and a reduction in de-hedging by gold mining companies. There was a small increase in mine output. The major Grasberg mine in Indonesia returned to normal levels after a reduction in much of 2004 following landslides, although this was largely offset by lower grades being mined in North America and Australia.
Net central bank sales, which were more than double the levels seen in Q1’04, were the main contributors to the increase in supply. In general this reflected the timing of sales under the CBGA. By April 1st 2005, the signatories to the CBGA had disposed of a combined 346 tonnes out of the 500 tonnes maximum. In particular, the first quarter of 2005 saw the final tranche of selling from Switzerland, which have now completed their 1,300 tonne sales programme.
Consumer demand trends in individual countries:
Asia
India
• Gold jewellery demand in Q1’05 up 72% in tonnage terms year-on-year.
• Jewellery promotion, such as the World Gold Council’s Speak Gold campaign, coupled with a strong economy, the positive impact on rural incomes of high agricultural prices for key crops and a good winter harvest, and an increase in the number of dealers and retail outlets, were the driving factors for the increase in demand.
• Net retail investment more than double that of the same period in 2004, helped by investors looking for alternative investments to place gains from the stock market rally of 2004.
China
• Consumer demand for gold up 14% year-on-year.
• Jewellery demand up 13% on Q1’04 with both the traditional 24-carat chuk kam and the more modern K-gold (18 carat) enjoying strong increases.
• Demand for chuk kam, to which there is a strong investment element, benefited from the slight decrease in the gold price.
• Demand for K-gold remained strong, resisting the usual winter dip, helped in part by Valentine’s Day promotions.
• Net retail investment was 36% higher in tonnage terms than a year earlier, due to the impact of the deregulation of the retail investment market as well as concerns over the poor performance of the Shanghai stock market and perceptions of an over heated property market.
Japan
• Demand for investment products up 12% on year-earlier levels, with strong investment buying in January that retreated slightly in February and March when a weaker yen caused a rise in the local price of gold.
• The economic climate remains favourable towards gold investment, with an undercurrent of concern over the level of public debt and its inflationary implications, as well as the pension crisis. The limits applied to bank deposit insurance guarantees from April 2005 are an additional positive factor for gold.
• Jewellery demand was stagnant, partly due to limited promotion.
Middle East and Turkey
UAE
• Consumer demand for gold up 11% in tonnage terms compared to Q1’04
• Demand growth spurred by a strong economy, rising tourist numbers and sharply increased promotional spending.
• Offtake during the Dubai Shopping festival rose 30% helped by a doubling in promotional spending on gold compared to 2004.
Saudi Arabia
• Consumer demand for gold up 10% on the same period the previous year.
• Government measures, including a reduction in customs duty and the easing of the Saudisation programme, announced in March will help boost jewellery demand in the future.
Turkey
• The boom in gold demand continued, establishing new records for both jewellery and investment.
• Jewellery demand rose 28% from Q1’04, itself a Q1 record.
• Demand partly driven by promotion, with 2005 seeing new companies beginning gold jewellery promotion, both in conjunction with, and independently of, the World Gold Council.
• Exceptional 31% year-on-year rise in investment, with 9 tonnes sold in March alone.
• Jewellery exports from Turkey have been 26% higher in Q1’05 than Q1’04, with January seeing Turkish exports to the US temporarily exceed those from Italy for the first time.
United States and Europe
US
• Jewellery demand increased 3% year-on-year, a positive result given the economic background and weaker consumer confidence and spending.
• Jewellery demand partly driven by the Speak Gold campaign and fashion shifts towards yellow gold.
• Net retail investment rose 5% on 2004 figures.
Europe
• Trends in Europe remained poor, in contrast to the rest of the world.
• In Italy, poor economic conditions resulted in consumer spending cutbacks, thus the climate for luxury goods remained heavily adverse, with jewellery demand falling 6% compared to a year earlier.
• More innovative and stylish pieces are continuing to sell well in both the domestic and export markets throughout Europe, continuing the ‘two-trend’ market with more fashionable design beefing up demand.
The UK market suffered from slow retail sales growth. Hallmarking of 18 carat pieces was 2.5% higher than a year earlier on a fine weight basis indicating that even though trends for gold consumption as a whole are negative, the high quality
Notes to Editors:
• and more stylish end of the market continued to be robust.
-Ends-
Contact:
For further information, contact Anita Saunders, head of public relations at the World Gold Council, on +44 207 826 4716, or 07769 682373, or e-mail anita.saunders@gold.org.
Claire Maloney or Rebecca Clark, Capital MS&L on 0207 878 3181, or e-mail firstname.lastname@capitalmsl.com
World Gold Council
The World Gold Council (WGC), a commercially-driven marketing organisation, is funded by the world’s leading gold mining companies. A global advocate for gold, the WGC aims to promote the demand for gold in all its forms through marketing activities in major international markets. For further information visit www.gold.org.
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Here is that Chinese site where I read it (perhaps this won't help you<g>)
takungpao.com |
