Hurricane Emily a Category 4 storm..
AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE WATCH WITH A HURRICANE WARNING FOR ALL OF JAMAICA.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM CARACAS WESTWARD TO PUNTO FIJO...INCLUDING THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS NORTH OF THE COAST AND WEST OF CARACAS. PORTIONS OF THIS WARNING AREA WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR BONAIRE...CURACAO... AND ARUBA. PORTIONS OF THIS WARNING AREA WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.
As of 5 a.m. EDT, Hurricane Emily was centered at 13.9 north, 69.2 west, or about 320 miles south of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic. The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 millibars (28.11 inches). Maximum sustained winds are 135 mph with higher gusts. Emily is a dangerous category 4 hurricane and is moving to the west-northwest at 20 mph.
Emily is moving into, and should stay, in a mostly favorable environment for intensification. Shear remains low, average surface pressures in the area remain low and water temperatures remain high. We believe that Emily will track across the southeastern Caribbean and continue to intensify, as it moves away from the northern part of South America. Emily should take a track south of Hispaniola today and is on a course that will take it close to or just south of Jamaica tomorrow morning. Emily will make landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula late Sunday or Sunday night. Emily may pose a threat to the Mexican coast or even south Texas Coast sometime Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.
A tropical wave is along 42 west, south of 22 north; a 1011 millibar low is along the wave axis, near 16 north. This feature is better organized than it was 24 hours ago with some banding features with the convection, or thunderstorms, taking place. This system is moving west and will be watched for strengthening.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic, there is a tropical wave near the African coast along 24 west, south of 19 west.
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