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Pastimes : HURRICANE SEASON 2005
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To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (11)7/16/2005 3:53:16 PM
From: GROUND ZERO™   of 14
 
AT 2:00 P.M. AST SATURDAY, A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL TO CABO CATOCHE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER. As of 2:00 p.m. AST Saturday, Hurricane Emily was centered at 16.4 north and 78.0 west or about 295 miles southeast of Grand Caymand. The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft was lowered to 937 millibars (27.66 inches). Maximum sustained winds are 155 mph with higher gusts. Movement is west-northwest at 18 mph. Emily should stay in a mostly favorable environment for the next couple of days, one that will allow her to remain a dangerous hurricane. Emily will encounter some west-southwest shear due to an upper-level low to its northwest, perhaps having some impact on intensity over the next 12-24 hours. However, by Sunday, Emily will be moving into an area of the western Caribbean with less shear. Average surface pressures in the area remain low, and water temperatures remain high. Emily is expected to continue to fluctuate in intensity, especially if undergoing any eyewall replacement cycles. Emily will continue to brush by to the south of Jamaica Saturday afternoon and then continue moving west-northwest. She will make landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula Sunday afternoon or Sunday night. Emily may pose a threat to the Mexican coast or even the South Texas coast sometime Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. A tropical wave about 750 miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands remains poorly organized Saturday morning. The wave will have to be watched for development, even though the upper-level winds are not entirely favorable.

GZ
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