Been wanting to post my "back of the envelope" observations for awhile:
At the time the move to Intel was announced, I recall seeing on this thread numerous postings of doom and gloom: AAPL to 29, 25, lower 20s, usually by earnings time. Well, it didn't happen. Now don't get me wrong, anyone who has the courage to post a price target backed up by at least a modicum of analysis has my respect. Even more respect due if they admit they were wrong.
My tentative conclusion so far: The market is pretty smart. It rarely makes really big mistakes {No, I don't need to be reminded of 199x-02. I lived and suffered through it}. The market is not seeing the move to Intel as a big negative, and quite possibly as a significant positive. Most of the purchasers of Apple products out there want (IMHO) a machine that works well and fairly easily. Good looks is clearly a plus. What is under the hood is of much greater concern to people on this board than to the masses who are buying millions of Apple products each quarter.
As to the "halo" effect. Maybe the term should be dropped (fat chance, huh?). To me it seems unassailable that, however defined, Apple's market share has risen over the past 12-24 (?) months from, what, the mid 2% range to probably in excess of 4%. Whether it will stay there, go up, or go down (gulp!) is something yet to be seen.
Personally, I believe that there is a gradually switch to Apple CPUs as buyers (in no particular order) like their iPods and want to see more, are increasingly fearful of viruses, etc. on Wintel machines, are growing increasingly frustrated with a cumbersome XP and its ever-further-into-the-future replacement. Whether anyone wants to call it a "halo effect" or not, Apple is selling more, earning more, and the market is putting an increasing value on the company. Frankly, that is plenty for me. I hope it continues. I *think* it will, but I am not always right.
Kip |
