re: Oil & Re-Peg as Econ/GeoPolitical WMD's...
I wish I had the time that I would need to really put together a well edited, coherent piece on this subject...but, unfortunately at this time, I do not...
So, here is a quick & loosely pieced together, rather long, rambling, synopsis on what I and many others feel is the unquestioned present "fixing" of the Oil Market and Inflating the Price of Oil along with the pressure for China to Re-Peg the Yuan...being used as Economic "WMD's" to collapse the Chinese Economy and as the “End Game” - to bring down the Communist PLA Government.
I'll start with the concept of using the Re-Peg of the Chinese Currency as an Economic "WMD" in the quote below from Morgan Stanley's Andy Xie, their Hong Kong based Global Economist.
For obvious career oriented reasons, no Morgan Stanley Economist is going to come out in print in Asia and say that the US is using Economic & Geopolitical tactic's straight out of the PLA's own Whitepaper on "Unrestricted Warfare" in an effort to quote:unquote - "crash the Chinese Economy"...and in turn, bring down the Communist Government just as we did with the Soviet Union....but, Xie does publically address the USA's desire to quote/unquote: "crash" the Chinese Economy via the Re-Peg.
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manilatimes.net
[..."Andy Xie, a Hong Kong-based economist with Morgan Stanley, said China has good reason not to listen too carefully when its foreign partners urge it to revalue the yuan and so voluntarily undercut its own exports.
“The politics over the yuan is to slow China down, if not cause a crash, in order to achieve a cyclical downturn favorable to the United States,” Xie said in a research note.
“Hence, a small currency move by China would only invite demands for more until the China economy crashes, in my view.”
A crash in China could prolong the US business cycle as it would mean lower prices of oil and other raw materials currently consumed by China in ever-increasing amounts, Xie argued.
Inflation in turn would weaken in the United States, making it possible for the US Federal Reserve to cut interest rates to boost the economy again.
“Some strategic thinkers consider China’s growth as a strategic challenge and want to slow China down,” Xie said.
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Here's a former Forbes Editor & Platt's Oil Analyst who takes the Andy Xie ball and runs a little further with it....his comments on the US "fixing" the Oil Market and artificialy inflating the Price of Oil - specifically to topple China's Government...are rather straight to the point:
peakoil.com
By Patrick Burns
Intelligencer Journal
Published: Mar 28, 2005 9:12 AM EST
LANCASTER COUNTY, PA - A controversial oil industry expert speaking earlier this month at the Lancaster Rotary Club said the U.S. government is responsible for record-high gasoline prices.
James R. Norman, a former editor of Forbes magazine and a senior writer with a prominent oil industry newsletter (Platt's), said high oil prices are part of a National Security Administration policy to prevent the superpower Chinese from achieving global dominance.
Norman, who also spoke at two other venues in Lancaster this month, said there is a long-term economic strategy in place to restrain Chinese growth through artificially high oil prices.
By creating "paper demand" for oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange, large U.S. oil companies, the Saudis and the Bush administration have conspired to nearly triple world oil prices from about $20 a barrel in New York at the start of 2002, according to Norman.
More at Lancaster Online
local.lancasteronline.com
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For anyone who still thinks that Oil and Currency Market Manipulations are not part & parcel of “modern” National Security Policy be it China’s, or the USA’s...here's an excerpt from pages 21 & 22 from the Communist Chinese PLA's own Military Whitepaper on "Unrestricted (Modern) Warfare" :
[pp. 21-22 ..."Just as technology is multiplying the number of different kinds of weapons, new thinking breaks down the distinction between weapon and non-weapon. To our way of thinking, a planned stock market crash, a computer virus attack, making the currency exchange rate of an enemy country erratic, and spreading rumors on the Internet about the leaders of an enemy country can all be thought of as new concept weapons."]
[pp. 38 – 42]... "The battlefield is everywhere. From a computer room or on from the trading floor of a stock exchange a lethal attack on a foreign country can be launched. In such a world is there anywhere that is not a battlefield? Where is the battlefield? It is everywhere."]
- what more needs to be said ?
Well, how about this... a piece from a US Pentagon Intelligence Study that hopefully will forever take the conspiracy theory "taint" off of this entire subject...as China & Oil are now most obviously at the "top" of the focus List for the Pentagon, the NSA and the CIA:
Here's a Washington Times piece on Pentagon Intelligence predictions that China will attack Taiwan within 2 years - with China's qwest for Oil & Gas being the catalyst:
washingtontimes.com
quote:
["Beijing also is facing a major energy shortage that, according to one Pentagon study, could lead it to use military force to seize territory with oil and gas resources.
The report produced for the Office of Net Assessment, which conducts assessments of future threats, was made public in January and warned that China's need for oil, gas and other energy resources is driving the country toward becoming an expansionist power.
China "is looking not only to build a blue-water navy to control the sea lanes [from the Middle East], but also to develop undersea mines and missile capabilities to deter the potential disruption of its energy supplies from potential threats, including the U.S. Navy, especially in the case of a conflict with Taiwan," the report said. "]
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China has already been sabre-rattling Japan over offshore Oil & Gas rights...
en-1.ce.cn
Here is the Chinese reaction to Japan's actions:
"If Japan deliberately authorizes private enterprises the right to drill, this will constitute a serious infringement of China's sovereignty and will complicate the East China Sea situation,"
"We strongly advise Japan not to take any actions that are unfavorable for the stability of the East China Sea and would damage China-Japan's overall relations,"
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The above was the Chinese reaction to the Japanese asserting sovereignty over Energy Assets... here's the Japanese reactions to the same:
Tic' Toc` ...
post-gazette.com
[" When a Chinese nuclear attack submarine entered Japanese waters last fall, Tokyo chased it with destroyers and aircraft in one of its biggest military operations since World War II. When China announced it wanted to help build a pipeline to buy Russian oil, Japan suddenly offered Moscow a richer deal to try to win the oil for itself. In April, as Chinese protesters stoned Japanese businesses amid demands that Japan apologize for its 1930s invasion, Tokyo replied with demands of its own that China apologize and pay for the damages.
These more assertive gestures have proven popular with voters here, who in recent years have shifted noticeably toward the right and a more nationalistic stand in foreign affairs. A big reason for the shift is fear and envy of China, whose roaring export engine seems to be stealing jobs at a time of economic uncertainty for Japan."]
...yes, you read that right... "NUCLEAR SUBMARINES"...but, why should this surprise anyone given the Chinese Colonel's remarks in last Weeks Financial Times Article - where they said they would use Nukes if the USA interferes with their Taiwan sovereignty !?!?
more:
[" Japan: - the real wake-up call came last year, when China started building an offshore platform in disputed waters to drill for natural gas. The platform will start extracting natural gas as early as this summer, says builder China National Offshore Oil Corp. Japan dispatched its own survey ship to the area, which Chinese ships tried to block. Interest in Tokyo was suddenly so high that in March, Mr. Takemi led a multipartisan group of-- young lawmakers on an inspection of the East China Sea aboard a Japanese Coast Guard jet. "When we saw how huge the Chinese drilling platform was, we realized we needed to act right away to start drilling, too," ]
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Now morphing back to the economic side of things ... here's what the Tokyo Branch of the Fed did recently:
thedollarcrisis.com
...imagine what can be accomplished with influence over and the control of China's Central Bank ?
...the continuation of the "Dollar Standard" may depend on it.
Japan is a very strong US Ally...China supplies Nuclear Technology & Military Arms to North Korea & Iran and is the lone threat to US sole Super Power Status.
Given that threat... and given China:Japan/Taiwan tensions.
...do you think that what the Reagan Administration was able to do via using Oil as an Economic & Geopolitical "WMD" to topple the Soviet Economy and thus the Communist Soviet Government - ending the Cold War... has escaped the Bush Administration vis a vis China ?
...same playbook, same page, same play with a little different twist, this time escalating vs. collapsing Oil Prices.
Then it was the Soviet Union.
Now it is China.
Same Threat... Same Solution -> Oil as an Economic & Geopolitical "WMD."
The writing is clearly on the wall.
China is the only threat to US sole Super Power Supremacy.
China is sabre rattling Taiwan & Japan and is escalating their military buildup, is supplying North Korea & Iran with Nuclear Technology and is now a Strategic Threat to the USA concerning Natural Resources.
If China's Communist Regime is brought down and the doors to Capitalism and unbridled investment from the West are opened...the Globalists will be able to exit decaying European & US Markets and enter China on the cheap, gaining control of China's Economic infrastructure & Banking System and profiteer a coming 20-40 Year China/India Industrial Revolution that will generate Profits exponential to the prior emergence of America & Western Europe.
Don't think China's Economy is fragile enough to be easily toppled ?
(no one thought the Soviet Empire could be brought down either fwiw...)
Here's a few pieces on the present fragility of China:
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On China, required reading:
lincolnheritage.org
China's Long March to Bankruptcy
March 23 2005 23 59 GMT
By Peter Zeihan
"The Chinese economic miracle is faltering -- the result of a complex mix of political and economic factors that cannot be changed without serious harm to some aspect of the Communist-run system. Though it has not yet become obvious from the outside, internal pressures generated by China's dependence on cheap credit, guaranteed employment and state-financed, state-owned industry are building steadily. A series of crises will erupt between now and the end of 2006, any one of which could be sufficient to cause an implosion...."
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re: China's Economic Inefficiencies - (Soviet Deja Vu):
service.spiegel.de
[" SPIEGEL: China is dazzling the world with its booming economy, which grew by 9.5 percent. Aren't you pleased with this speed of growth?
Minister Pan: Of course I am pleased with the success of China's economy. But at the same time I am worried. We are using too many raw materials to sustain this growth. To produce goods worth $10,000, for example, we need seven times more resources than Japan, nearly six times more than the United States and, perhaps most embarrassing, nearly three times more than India. Things can't, nor should they be allowed to go on like that."]
....7 x more resources than Japan, 6 x that of the USA and 3 x that of India to produce the same $10,000 of goods.
Remember this concept:
- EXPLOIT THE INEFFICIENCIES INHERRENT IN THE COMMUNIST ECONOMIC SYSTEM to topple the Economy and the Government will follow…
It worked for Ronald Reagan with the Soviet Union and it will work for George W. Bush with China.
…modern Warfare indeed… not a single shot – ever fired.
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There is tremendous political, social and cultural instability in China. Many point to the China Miracle of bringing nearly 200 Million People out of poverty and into the modern economy.... unfortunately there are still another 1 Billion people left starving, without clean water, or air, adequate food, medical resources, or opportunities.
1 Billion very unhappy people...
-on that point, once again, from the der Spiegel Article:
[Minister Pan: ...”For them (the Chinese Government), the gross domestic product is the only yardstick by which to gauge the government's performance. But we are also making another mistake: We are convinced that a prospering economy automatically goes hand in hand with political stability. And I think that's a major blunder.
The faster the economy grows, the more quickly we will run the risk of a political crisis if the political reforms cannot keep pace. If the gap between the poor and the rich widens, then regions within China and the society as a whole will become unstable."]
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moneycentral.msn.com
["...The costs of raw materials such as oil and iron ore are up, but Chinese companies can't raise prices. Remember how mega-retailers such as Wal-Mart Stores (WMT, news, msgs) used the threat of buying from low-cost Chinese manufacturers to wring almost every last penny of profit out of suppliers based in the U.S. and Europe? Well, now Chinese suppliers are getting a dose of the same medicine, and it hurts. And even in China, companies hire fewer people, expand more slowly and build fewer new plants when the books show red ink.
The Chinese profit squeeze
The profit squeeze is widespread. It's hit the petrochemical sector, where Jinzhou Petrochemical on July 13 forecast a loss of $70 million for the first half of 2005. That's 10 times higher than the loss the company predicted for the same period back in April. Profits in China's auto industry are projected to decline by 50% in the first half of 2005, and profits actually have already declined 60% in the first four months of 2005, according to the Chinese Ministry of Commerce. TCL, one of the country's largest companies, will lose enough money in its mobile-phone business to throw the whole company into the red for the year. "]
...a crashing stock market, collapsing corporate profits - pressured by ramping Natural Resource Costs (whodathunkit ?), a Banking System laden with corruption and Bad, Non-Performing Loans totalling approx $800 Billion... versus a total Chinese gross domestic product of only $1.6 trillion.
China is not - all it seems.
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re: the question of - "45% of available Oil locked up by "West" drives China ?
< read the entire 4 piece article at:>
financialsense.com
"The China Syndrome"
by Joe Duarte
["The dark side of China’s rapid growth and industrialization is becoming increasingly apparent, and the rubber band between its yin and its yang may be getting thin enough to have developed a crack or two.
By going to fringe nations (Sudan), paying too high a price for oil, and by railroading anyone who gets in its way, Beijing is building a large Karma debt.
In other words, when an entity, in this case China, can manage to upset the United States, Amnesty International, the governments of Japan and Vietnam nearly simultaneously, the situation is not just a blip.
At some point, Beijing’s heavy handed oil drilling is going to go one well too far. And the consequences will almost certainly not be benign."]
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The Coming Collapse of China
(Random House, 2001)
“Gordon Chang's provocative thesis is that the end of the Chinese Communist Party is not in the distant future but is imminent. He exposes the flaws in China's economic and political institutions and examines the forces at work to bring about a collapse of the present regime.”
..."forces at work to bring about a collapse of the present regime"
- if he only knew ~
cato.org
China's Economic Miracle in Danger
by James A. Dorn
James A. Dorn is a China specialist at the Cato Institute and coeditor of China's Future: Constructive Partner or Emerging Threat? (2000).
“The recent increase in the benchmark rate by the People's Bank of China is a clear signal Beijing is worried about overheating. The dismal performance of China's stock exchanges is also a strong indicator of the failure of market socialism and the need for ownership reform. Without real owners of capital assets and competitive interest rates, the future of China's economic miracle is highly questionable.
The upsurge in inflation from zero to more than 5 percent in the last several months could further weaken the financial system. The People's Bank of China has been using credit controls and moral suasion to slow the growth of bank credit, which expanded by more than 20 percent in 2003. As that growth slows, the non-performing loan problem could worsen.
The lack of free capital markets and competitive interest rates force China to resort to administrative measures, but those very measures are making the financial system less, not more, stable. If banks keep lending rates fixed at less than the rate of inflation, the demand for loans will continue to soar. If the PBOC accommodates that demand for money, inflation will accelerate.
The root of the problem is that politics, not markets, determine the magnitude and direction of investment in China's market socialist system. Nominal interest rates are set at below-market levels causing an excess demand for investment funds. Those funds are then directed primarily to state-owned enterprises through state-run banks. Corruption and inefficiency are inevitable in such a system….”
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Some may ask – What will the USA accomplish via pressuring China to Re-Peg their currency ?... what will be the ramifications of a revaluation ?
cato.org
According to Nobel Prize winning Economist Robert Mundell, a renminbi appreciation would cut foreign direct investment, cut China's growth rate, delay convertibility, increase bad loans, increase unemployment, cause deflation distress in rural areas, destabilize Southeast Asia, reward speculators, set in motion more revaluation pressures, weaken the external role of the renminbi and undermine China's compliance with World Trade Organization rules.
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re: Chinese Re-Valuation - an Economic “WMD” by any other name… is still an Economic WMD.
Regarding "fixing" the Oil Market:
...Perhaps a few people are familar with "PROMIS” the infamous NSA-level Government Software.
- not a myth... cut thru the conspiracy rags to find the truth.
PROMIS is being used globally to monitor all Financial Markets, it is used to track both Terrorists & their Money Trails and is being used to control the Oil Markets.
- this is THE great unspoken whisper amongst Oil Traders.
...still think it's a myth ?
Again, from Chinese Intelligence Papers:
Here's what the Chinese fear...for valid reasons:
["Chinese Officials Acutely Aware of InfoSec Vulnerabilities:
Chinese government orders and official statements over the last year show that Chinese officials are very concerned about Chinese vulnerabilities in an "Unrestricted Warfare" world.
Many articles during 1999 warned that imported (largely U.S. sourced) hardware and software may include backdoors that could enable foreigners to threaten Chinese national security.
Backdoors: U.S. Privacy Concerns = PRC Security Concerns
As hardware and software complexity increases, there is a growing risk that intruders may find novel ways of combining the functionalities of what are to the users opaque proprietary black boxes.
... Press interviews with leading Chinese engineers regularly make the point that China needs to develop its own proprietary intellectual property -- including an operating system and microprocessors. Red Flag Linux has been mentioned in the Chinese press as a potential operating system solution for China."
peopledaily.com.cn)
We Must Act Immediately to Protect Our Information Security
(Information Technologies Forum)
by He Dequan, Academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering
As we move into the Twenty First Century, information security has become a global problem. National security, the rise and fall of nations, victory and defeat are the first concerns of states and nations. Information security is linked to these issues. If we don't have information security, we cannot say that we truly have national security, or truly have political security, military security or economic security. Economics and information are daily becoming ever more global. We can see how this trends gives us new development opportunities but also severe new challenges. The United States leads the tide towards globalization and is using information hegemony to dominate the world.
The United States is fostering and preparing an information deterrent and information warfare. "]
- whodathunkit ?!?
,,,I can "PROMIS" you that the Chinese fears are not - "unwarranted."
Shei neng ying xia yi chang zhanzheng ?
Zhangzheng Li Women you duoyuan ?
Xia yige mubiao shi shei ?
wuji bifan...
Slider-son`
Just as water has no fixed shape there is no one best military tactic.
Varying tactics according to your enemy to bring victory is best.
– Sun Zi |
