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Non-Tech : Derivatives: Darth Vader's Revenge

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From: Worswick7/17/2005 9:56:11 AM
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A great new blog that covers derivative risk... for those of you still alive and well. Best to you,

See:
bankdersysrisk.blogspot.com

A recent post on another great "thread" by the poster Chromatic Dispersion.

See: blogger.com

Chromatic Dispersion said...

The first domino starts to fall. UK and AU will start to draw upon their credit derivatives upon the largest banks in the world.

This will lead to drawing down real money to save their banking systems. This action weakens the banking system to other credit bubbles.

What the hell am I talking about?

This is what I mean.

Banks will have to honor their credit derivative by shipping money to these countries. This means their reserves will lower.

The more countries that go through housing crashes, the more money is used in this fashion. If too much money is needed then the banks in danger of Counter-Party Fault.

Counter-Party Fault is the party owing money on a derivative contract cannot or will not make the required payment.

This puts the US housing crash on dangerous new footing. We think we have credit derivative protection. But that is assuming that the counter-party has the money.

If Europe and Asia start to crash then,

PMI = history
FDIC = history
GSE’s = history

These agencies and insurance will not have the money as promised to bail out either underwater mortgages in the case of PMI, or the income stream in the case of the GSE’s.

Welcome to the world of the cascading crisis. You see, it’s all linked.

Chromatic Dispersion

2:48 PM
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