I think it's way too soon to evaluate the effect of Apple's announced processor change on their sales. Most people aren't even aware of the news. It'll take a while for the announcement to hit the sales figures, if it does.
I agree! But, I also believe that there are a lot of people who were in the market to buy a Mac who were stopped cold by the announcement. And, that many of the so named 'Mac Faithful' entering the market subsequent to the announcement have/will put their purchase on hold until further evaluation. Since the net effect on sales would be negative, and there was three weeks of the quarter under this influence, and sales still soared, I have to conclude that the various effects, Halo, Pitchfork, etc... are in full play.
That's an enormous positive! That means the delayed purchases can only drive unit sales higher when they come in. Since it is largely from the 'Mac Faithful' that deferrals would come from, the unusually high unit numbers must be from Switchers. If the switcher phenomena is being driven by the Halo Effect, it is just starting to wind up.
Somewhat analogous to this division in market share between Windows and other operating systems is the Universal Gas Law and the principals of diffusion of one gas substance with another. On the one hand Windows is the container. On the other, there is OS X. The barriers to switching, such as the learning curve, investment in software and resistance to change, form the properties of the containers that prevent the individuals or molecules from escaping.
What's interesting to note here is that in the mid 1600s the Belgian chemist and physician Jan Baptista van Helmont invented the word gas by altering the Greek word chaos, meaning space.
When these differing markets are isolated except for random events of dual installation, there is very little diffusion (switching) for multiple reasons, some of which are listed above. The constant and random motion of the individual molecules in isolation and under no pressure do little to overcome the barriers to diffusion of one market into the other. Even pressure, in the form of viruses, trojans and spyware, do little to diffuse the differing markets.
The net effect of the huge problematic gas balloon that is Windows in close proximity to the much smaller and better organized one that is OS X is that of a gas under pressure coming into contact with that of one under vacuum through a membrane barrier. The learning curve, investment in software and resistance to change barriers can only be broken down by experience with the new software from the other side, effectively bundled and highly useful software and the awareness of favorable change itself.
It is only when there is the constant chaotic collision of the individual molecules of one market with that of the other that we see that the rate of diffusion increases. And that effect is characterized by the proliferation of the iTunes software and iPod hardware into the chaos that is Windows.
And it has only just begun.
Herb |
