Dale > JHB 1989-1991.
Then you would know exactly where I live which is in Lower Houghton, right on the M1 Motorway, opposite Killarney Mall. In fact, about 100m from the US Consulate which I can see if I look out of my window.
> I know my way around the area pretty well, plus some parts of East Africa and the Indian Ocean.
That's for sure.
> what happens to Zuma will tell us a lot
Yes, the Zuma saga is very important, in fact, more important that people generally realize. Apparently there are two groups competing for power in the ANC and Zuma is not only the former Deputy Pres but as the head of the alternate group is Mbeki's main rival. He has a great deal of populist support, in fact, support which Mbeki does not have and if the court finds him guilty of fraud I am sure there will be real problems for survival of the ANC as we know it. On the other hand, if he is found not guilty, as I believe he is, then that will pose Mbeki with an even bigger hot potato because then there's no reason why Zuma should not be the next President of SA. Why I say he's not guilty is because he is clearly a very simple and rather ignorant man who looked to Shaik for advice and guidance in financial matters. Maybe there are other aspects eg the bribe for the arms deal, but it is possible with a smart lawyer that Zuma could blame the whole can of worms on Shaik?
> SA is a much more capitalist environment than it was 15 years ago, with a retail explosion that boggles the mind
The scene has changed. Fifteen years ago I suppose it was as capitalist as it could be in a virtually closed economy. Then post-1994, when the ANC took over, we had 7-8 years of consolidation and I would attribute the present retail explosion to a recovery from that long period of consolidation. Further, and despite the official contention that inflation is miniscule, the place is absolutely swimming in money. Whether this is because of the strong rand and high interest rates attracting foreign capital I can't say but I can say it's many years since I've seen so much money around.
> Edcon's earnings were gangbusters
Yes and Edcon is an excellent example of a firm that went through the consolidation period I mentioned. And however optimistic one is, and you sound very optimistic, I don't think one can reasonably expect the earnings of the past 3 years to continue at the same rate.
> The verdict on the future is still out. We shall see.
I agree. I have no intention of leaving so I hope for the best. Exciting times all the same. |
