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Strategies & Market Trends : Africa and its Issues- Why Have We Ignored Africa?
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To: Dale Baker who wrote (407)7/18/2005 8:13:04 AM
From: sea_urchin  Read Replies (1) of 1267
 
Dale > if SA can achieve a long-term growth rate with some relative stability, that will be quite an achievement

Under the previous regime there was excellent growth especially in the 1960s, after Sharpeville. In fact, all the big businesses which one sees around now grew rapidly and established themselves at that time. Unfortunately, after "Soweto" in 1976 and the Angolan/Namibian conflict which ensued thereafter SA became very much like Israel is today, or worse, and so economic growth was replaced by worsening inflation and depreciation of the rand. Nevertheless, most of these businesses continued to grow. The point I make is that growth has occurred and can recur -- if allowed to. One very good factor has been Trevor Manuel who IMO is the best of the ANC ministers. He can certainly take a great deal of credit for the present resurgence.

What I would like to see to give me more confidence
1. As I mentioned, a limit to BEE
2. Limitation on illegal immigration and asylum seeking from the rest of Africa. Enough is enough, especially of criminals and HIV/AIDS sufferers. If you came to Johannesburg CBD today you would think you were in Lagos.
3. Lowering of short term rates to that found say in the US. This would make borrowing far less penal than it is and would facilitate entrepreneurial activity.
4. Weakening of the Rand to around 8 to the USD. This would reawaken the export industries especially in mining and agriculture and help to combat the cheap Asian imports. Unfortunately, it would make petrol more expensive and already SA has the most expensive mass-transport in the world which is dependent on petrol-driven mini buses rather than diesel which is far cheaper.
5. Incentives to induce more fixed, long-term investment and less rent seeking, especially by foreign investors
6. Drastic liberalization of labor laws especially in the case of small businesses.
7. Less government bureaucracy, red tape and interference in everything and a firm commitment to free-enterprise rather than state and crony capitalism.

Unfortunately, all this is wishful thinking. The roots of the ANC are in Marxism and not in Adam Smith and they want it their way -- just as the previous regime did.
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